SFM Tracker

Weekly Top 20 Predictions by League

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Matchday 7: Premier League (Completed Games Only)
One round — 0 graded picks. Not played yet — the boards below are the picks, still to be graded. See the full season.
SFM Top 20 Predictions
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Naive Top 20 Predictions
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No results yet. Predictions are for upcoming matches. Once games are played and results are updated, performance stats will appear here.
Premier League 2026/27 GD07 Upcoming
0 gamedays completed
History: GD01 GD02 GD03 GD04 GD05 GD06
Rank Player Team vs SFM Naive Result
1 Erling Haaland Manchester City Ipswich Town 66.9% 58.1% Pending
2 Alexander Isak Liverpool Brentford 47.3% 34.9% Pending
3 Kai Havertz Arsenal Nottingham Forest 35.0% 24.5% Pending
4 Marcus Tavernier AFC Bournemouth Sunderland 34.4% 14.4% Pending
5 Bukayo Saka Arsenal Nottingham Forest 33.6% 23.7% Pending
6 Thierno Barry Everton Chelsea 33.3% 22.9% Pending
7 Brian Brobbey Sunderland AFC Bournemouth 30.7% 20.2% Pending
8 Antoine Semenyo Manchester City Ipswich Town 30.7% 26.9% Pending
9 Joao Pedro 10 Chelsea Everton 29.1% 25.8% Pending
10 Rayan Cherki Manchester City Ipswich Town 28.8% 9.6% Pending
11 Dominic Calvert Lewin Leeds United Manchester United 28.2% 23.1% Pending
12 Kevin Schade Brentford Liverpool 28.0% 18.0% Pending
13 Nicolas Jackson Aston Villa Newcastle United 27.8% 30.1% Pending
14 Yoane Wissa Newcastle United Aston Villa 27.2% 24.5% Pending
15 Jack Hinshelwood Brighton & Hove Albion Crystal Palace 26.6% 19.1% Pending
16 Bryan Mbeumo Manchester United Leeds United 25.2% 26.4% Pending
17 Bruno Fernandes Manchester United Leeds United 25.1% 22.3% Pending
18 Benjamin Sesko Manchester United Leeds United 25.1% 33.2% Pending
19 Justin Kluivert AFC Bournemouth Sunderland 25.0% 16.9% Pending
20 Omar Marmoush Tottenham Hotspur Coventry City 24.4% 26.7% Pending
SFM Tracker
Top 20 Selection

For each league and gameday, we select the 20 players with the highest median probability of scoring at least one goal as predicted by the SFM.

Frozen Predictions

Predictions are locked before matches are played. This ensures transparent, verifiable performance tracking.

Fair Comparison

We compare SFM's top 20 picks against Naive's own top 20 picks (ranked by historical average). This is apples-to-apples.

Brier Score

Evaluation metric for probabilistic predictions. Measures both calibration and discrimination. Lower is better.