World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Thursday, June 11, 2026
Mexico
1–0
most likely
South Africa
Win: Mexico
52.0%
90% CI: 37.6–66.6
Draw
27.0%
90% CI: 20.4–32.9
Win: South Africa
21.0%
90% CI: 12.1–31.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Mexico
xG 1.44
0
24.7%
13.6%–37.0%
1
33.5%
27.1%–36.7%
2
23.7%
18.3%–27.0%
3+
18.1%
7.9%–32.2%
South Africa
xG 0.79
0
45.9%
33.9%–57.7%
1
35.2%
31.7%–36.8%
2
14.0%
8.7%–19.8%
3+
4.9%
1.8%–9.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Mexico, draw, Win: South Africa — shaded by likelihood.
|
Mexico
|
South Africa
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 15.4 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.