World Cup 2026 — Champion Odds

Each team's road to the title, simulated by the SFMMO bracket model.

Updated after each matchday

Forecast vintage: Pre Matchday 1 Pre Matchday 2 Pre Matchday 3 Pre Round of 32 Pre Round of 16 Pre Quarter-finals Pre Semi-finals Pre Final

Probabilities of reaching each knockout round and of winning the title, from a full tournament simulation (group stage incl. best third-placed seeding, then the knockout bracket). Columns sum across teams to the round's slot count — e.g. Champion sums to 100%, Final to 200%. Click a column header to sort.

Title Odds Tracker

How each nation's championship probability has evolved across forecast updates. Pick any set of teams to compare.

#	Team	Group	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion	Δ
1	Spain	H	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	65.1%	▲ 42.7
2	Argentina	J	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	34.9%	▲ 16.1
3	France	I	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -30.4
4	England	L	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -28.4
5	Germany	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
6	Ecuador	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
7	Japan	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
8	Netherlands	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
9	Iran	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
10	Uruguay	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
11	Portugal	K	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
12	Croatia	L	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
13	Belgium	G	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
14	Mexico	A	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
15	Senegal	I	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
16	New Zealand	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
17	Cape Verde	H	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
18	Saudi Arabia	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
19	Iraq	I	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
20	Norway	I	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
21	Algeria	J	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
22	South Africa	A	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
23	Jordan	J	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
24	Austria	J	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
25	Colombia	K	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
26	DR Congo	K	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
27	Uzbekistan	K	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
28	Ghana	L	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
29	Egypt	G	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
30	Tunisia	F	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
31	Scotland	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
32	South Korea	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
33	Czechia	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
34	Bosnia & Herzegovina	B	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
35	Canada	B	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
36	Qatar	B	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
37	Haiti	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
38	Australia	D	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
39	Paraguay	D	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
40	Türkiye	D	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
41	United States	D	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
42	Curaçao	E	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
43	Ivory Coast	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
44	Switzerland	B	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
45	Panama	L	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
46	Brazil	C	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
47	Morocco	C	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
48	Sweden	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in championship probability (percentage points) vs the previous forecast. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO tournament simulation.