Bundesliga — Season Odds

Title race, top-four and relegation, simulated to the final whistle of the season.

Updated after each matchday · board as of Sept. 22, 2026

Every remaining fixture is simulated from the SFMMO match model; matches already played are pinned to their real scores, so the board conditions on the season as it unfolds and the point ranges tighten week by week. xPTS is expected final points, shown with its 90% range. Title probabilities sum to 100% across the league; top-four sums to 400%.

Title Race Tracker

How each club's title probability has moved as results have come in. Pick any set to compare, or click a point to open the full board from that run.

#	Club	ELO	xPTS	Top 4	Releg.	Title	Δ
1	Bayern Munich	1661	74.5 63–85	99.6%	0.0%	74.8%	▲ 0.5
2	Borussia Dortmund	1602	67.0 56–78	94.0%	0.0%	19.3%	▲ 3.5
3	RB Leipzig	1529	59.4 48–71	70.7%	0.0%	3.0%	▼ -4.0
4	Bayer Leverkusen	1550	58.1 46–69	62.9%	0.1%	2.4%	▲ 0.3
5	Freiburg	1505	49.0 38–60	14.0%	2.1%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
6	VfB Stuttgart	1516	48.9 37–61	14.4%	2.6%	0.1%	▼ -0.2
7	Mainz 05	1477	47.6 36–59	10.3%	3.5%	0.1%	0.0
8	Werder Bremen	1439	47.9 36–60	11.3%	3.7%	0.1%	0.0
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	1476	45.6 34–57	6.5%	6.3%	0.1%	0.0
10	Hoffenheim	1477	45.6 34–57	6.4%	6.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
11	Augsburg	1471	45.2 34–57	5.7%	6.9%	0.0%	0.0
12	Schalke 04	1316	39.8 29–51	1.0%	23.1%	0.0%	0.0
13	Hamburger SV	1394	39.1 28–51	0.9%	28.3%	0.0%	0.0
14	Union Berlin	1416	38.8 27–51	0.9%	30.5%	0.0%	0.0
15	Borussia Mönchengladbach	1412	38.7 28–50	0.5%	29.0%	0.0%	0.0
16	1. FC Köln	1373	37.0 26–48	0.5%	38.3%	0.0%	0.0
17	Elversberg new	1328	36.1 26–47	0.2%	44.1%	0.0%	0.0
18	Paderborn	1311	30.2 19–42	0.0%	75.4%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the favourite on the board shown. Δ = change in title probability vs the board before it. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO season simulation.