Bundesliga — Season Odds

Title race, top-four and relegation, simulated to the final whistle of the season.

Updated after each matchday · board as of Sept. 8, 2026

Every remaining fixture is simulated from the SFMMO match model; matches already played are pinned to their real scores, so the board conditions on the season as it unfolds and the point ranges tighten week by week. xPTS is expected final points, shown with its 90% range. Title probabilities sum to 100% across the league; top-four sums to 400%.

Title Race Tracker

How each club's title probability has moved as results have come in. Pick any set to compare.

#	Club	ELO	xPTS	Top 4	Releg.	Title	Δ
1	Bayern Munich	1654	72.9 62–84	99.2%	0.0%	73.0%	▼ -6.1
2	Borussia Dortmund	1590	64.4 52–76	87.1%	0.0%	16.3%	▲ 7.3
3	RB Leipzig	1533	60.0 48–72	70.6%	0.0%	6.6%	▼ -2.9
4	Bayer Leverkusen	1542	56.8 45–69	54.6%	0.2%	2.8%	▲ 1.3
5	VfB Stuttgart	1535	52.5 40–65	29.5%	1.0%	0.7%	▲ 0.3
6	Freiburg	1498	47.2 36–59	10.1%	4.5%	0.1%	▲ 0.1
7	Mainz 05	1479	47.4 36–59	10.6%	4.0%	0.1%	0.0
8	Hoffenheim	1481	46.1 34–58	8.7%	6.4%	0.1%	0.0
9	Werder Bremen	1429	46.4 35–58	8.3%	6.3%	0.1%	0.0
10	Augsburg	1480	46.8 35–59	9.4%	5.2%	0.1%	0.0
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	1465	43.8 32–56	4.2%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	1429	42.2 31–54	2.6%	15.9%	0.0%	0.0
13	Elversberg new	1330	36.7 26–48	0.4%	42.2%	0.0%	0.0
14	Union Berlin	1434	41.6 30–54	2.6%	19.2%	0.0%	0.0
15	Hamburger SV	1391	38.3 27–50	0.8%	34.4%	0.0%	0.0
16	1. FC Köln	1381	38.8 27–51	0.8%	31.1%	0.0%	0.0
17	Schalke 04	1303	37.9 27–50	0.6%	35.1%	0.0%	0.0
18	Paderborn	1299	28.2 17–40	0.0%	83.2%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in title probability vs the previous board. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO season simulation.