Bundesliga — Season Odds

Title race, top-four and relegation, simulated to the final whistle of the season.

Updated after each matchday · board as of Aug. 15, 2026

Every remaining fixture is simulated from the SFMMO match model; matches already played are pinned to their real scores, so the board conditions on the season as it unfolds and the point ranges tighten week by week. xPTS is expected final points, shown with its 90% range. Title probabilities sum to 100% across the league; top-four sums to 400%.

The Title Race Tracker appears here once the board updates after the first matchday — it shows how each club's odds move as results land.

#	Club	ELO	xPTS	Top 4	Releg.	Title	Δ
1	Bayern Munich	1656	73.2 62–84	98.8%	0.0%	76.1%	—
2	RB Leipzig	1539	61.0 48–74	73.2%	0.1%	9.2%	—
3	Borussia Dortmund	1577	61.2 49–74	74.0%	0.0%	8.6%	—
4	Bayer Leverkusen	1552	58.2 46–70	60.0%	0.1%	4.3%	—
5	VfB Stuttgart	1536	52.2 40–65	27.0%	0.9%	0.8%	—
6	Hoffenheim	1502	49.9 37–62	18.5%	2.2%	0.4%	—
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	1476	46.3 34–59	8.0%	6.2%	0.2%	—
8	Borussia Mönchengladbach	1450	46.1 34–58	7.7%	6.0%	0.1%	—
9	Mainz 05	1475	46.7 35–59	9.1%	5.2%	0.1%	—
10	Werder Bremen	1424	45.5 33–58	7.1%	7.1%	0.1%	—
11	Union Berlin	1440	43.3 31–56	4.2%	12.8%	0.1%	—
12	Freiburg	1485	43.8 32–56	5.0%	10.7%	0.0%	—
13	Augsburg	1464	42.9 31–55	3.5%	13.1%	0.0%	—
14	Schalke 04	1300	38.5 27–51	1.0%	30.4%	0.0%	—
15	1. FC Köln	1374	37.4 26–49	0.7%	35.4%	0.0%	—
16	Hamburger SV	1405	41.0 29–53	2.0%	19.0%	0.0%	—
17	Paderborn	1300	29.0 17–42	0.1%	78.4%	0.0%	—
18	Elversberg new	1300	30.9 20–43	0.1%	72.3%	0.0%	—

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in title probability vs the previous board. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO season simulation.