Premier League — Season Odds

Title race, top-four and relegation, simulated to the final whistle of the season.

Updated after each matchday · board as of Aug. 15, 2026

Every remaining fixture is simulated from the SFMMO match model; matches already played are pinned to their real scores, so the board conditions on the season as it unfolds and the point ranges tighten week by week. xPTS is expected final points, shown with its 90% range. Title probabilities sum to 100% across the league; top-four sums to 400%.

The Title Race Tracker appears here once the board updates after the first matchday — it shows how each club's odds move as results land.

#	Club	ELO	xPTS	Top 4	Releg.	Title	Δ
1	Manchester City	1590	72.2 59–84	84.1%	0.0%	33.1%	—
2	Arsenal	1609	72.1 59–85	83.1%	0.0%	32.3%	—
3	Liverpool	1528	67.0 54–80	61.7%	0.0%	12.6%	—
4	Manchester United	1543	66.8 54–80	59.9%	0.0%	11.6%	—
5	Chelsea	1484	63.8 51–77	44.7%	0.0%	6.6%	—
6	Brentford	1487	56.9 43–71	16.9%	0.8%	1.4%	—
7	Tottenham Hotspur	1426	53.7 41–67	7.7%	1.9%	0.4%	—
8	AFC Bournemouth	1519	52.6 39–66	6.3%	3.1%	0.4%	—
9	Aston Villa	1526	53.0 40–66	6.9%	1.9%	0.4%	—
10	Nottingham Forest	1469	52.2 38–67	6.9%	4.2%	0.3%	—
11	Brighton & Hove Albion	1490	52.2 39–66	6.2%	3.2%	0.2%	—
12	Everton	1464	51.8 39–65	4.7%	3.3%	0.2%	—
13	Newcastle United	1475	51.5 39–64	4.5%	3.3%	0.2%	—
14	Crystal Palace	1459	48.8 36–62	2.4%	7.2%	0.1%	—
15	Fulham	1473	48.6 36–62	2.2%	7.7%	0.1%	—
16	Leeds United	1433	46.5 33–60	1.5%	12.6%	0.0%	—
17	Sunderland	1441	41.7 29–55	0.3%	28.2%	0.0%	—
18	Coventry City new	1300	34.2 23–47	0.0%	69.3%	0.0%	—
19	Hull City	1300	33.9 22–47	0.0%	70.0%	0.0%	—
20	Ipswich Town	1300	30.3 18–44	0.0%	83.2%	0.0%	—

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in title probability vs the previous board. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO season simulation.