Premier League — Season Odds

Title race, top-four and relegation, simulated to the final whistle of the season.

Updated after each matchday · board as of Sept. 22, 2026

Every remaining fixture is simulated from the SFMMO match model; matches already played are pinned to their real scores, so the board conditions on the season as it unfolds and the point ranges tighten week by week. xPTS is expected final points, shown with its 90% range. Title probabilities sum to 100% across the league; top-four sums to 400%.

Title Race Tracker

How each club's title probability has moved as results have come in. Pick any set to compare, or click a point to open the full board from that run.

#	Club	ELO	xPTS	Top 4	Releg.	Title	Δ
1	Manchester City	1620	78.6 67–90	97.1%	0.0%	56.7%	▲ 10.7
2	Arsenal	1620	75.1 63–87	93.3%	0.0%	31.0%	▼ -13.6
3	Liverpool	1537	67.1 55–79	66.2%	0.0%	6.8%	▲ 2.9
4	Chelsea	1484	63.1 51–75	42.5%	0.1%	2.4%	▼ -0.7
5	Manchester United	1521	61.6 49–74	36.3%	0.1%	1.5%	▼ -0.1
6	Brentford	1501	58.9 46–72	23.7%	0.3%	0.8%	▲ 0.5
7	Brighton & Hove Albion	1507	56.2 44–69	14.8%	0.6%	0.4%	▲ 0.2
8	Everton	1480	54.0 42–66	7.8%	1.3%	0.2%	▲ 0.2
9	Newcastle United	1480	52.5 41–65	5.5%	2.2%	0.1%	▲ 0.1
10	AFC Bournemouth	1498	48.4 36–61	1.8%	7.1%	0.1%	0.0
11	Nottingham Forest	1454	49.2 36–62	2.9%	6.4%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
12	Leeds United	1456	50.3 38–63	3.5%	4.2%	0.0%	0.0
13	Aston Villa	1501	49.1 37–61	2.3%	5.6%	0.0%	0.0
14	Tottenham Hotspur	1404	47.2 35–59	1.1%	9.2%	0.0%	0.0
15	Crystal Palace	1441	45.6 34–58	0.6%	13.2%	0.0%	0.0
16	Fulham	1445	43.2 31–55	0.4%	20.3%	0.0%	0.0
17	Hull City	1330	39.0 28–51	0.1%	42.7%	0.0%	0.0
18	Sunderland	1430	40.3 29–52	0.1%	34.8%	0.0%	0.0
19	Ipswich Town	1314	33.3 22–46	0.0%	74.8%	0.0%	0.0
20	Coventry City new	1295	32.9 22–44	0.0%	76.8%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the favourite on the board shown. Δ = change in title probability vs the board before it. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO season simulation.