Premier League — Season Odds

Title race, top-four and relegation, simulated to the final whistle of the season.

Updated after each matchday · board as of Sept. 8, 2026

Every remaining fixture is simulated from the SFMMO match model; matches already played are pinned to their real scores, so the board conditions on the season as it unfolds and the point ranges tighten week by week. xPTS is expected final points, shown with its 90% range. Title probabilities sum to 100% across the league; top-four sums to 400%.

Title Race Tracker

How each club's title probability has moved as results have come in. Pick any set to compare.

#	Club	ELO	xPTS	Top 4	Releg.	Title	Δ
1	Arsenal	1626	76.0 64–88	93.5%	0.0%	42.2%	▲ 5.7
2	Manchester City	1606	75.5 63–88	92.8%	0.0%	39.1%	▼ -1.0
3	Chelsea	1498	66.3 54–79	57.9%	0.0%	6.6%	▼ -3.6
4	Liverpool	1530	66.4 54–79	60.1%	0.0%	6.6%	▲ 1.0
5	Manchester United	1531	64.1 51–77	46.9%	0.1%	4.1%	▼ -1.5
6	Brentford	1491	56.9 44–70	15.3%	0.8%	0.7%	▼ -0.4
7	Brighton & Hove Albion	1488	52.1 39–65	5.2%	3.2%	0.2%	▼ -0.1
8	Everton	1476	53.1 41–66	6.2%	1.9%	0.1%	0.0
9	Newcastle United	1484	53.1 41–66	6.1%	2.0%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
10	AFC Bournemouth	1510	50.8 38–64	4.0%	4.2%	0.1%	0.0
11	Tottenham Hotspur	1412	49.9 38–62	2.5%	5.1%	0.1%	0.0
12	Crystal Palace	1455	48.6 36–61	1.7%	7.2%	0.1%	▲ 0.1
13	Nottingham Forest	1457	49.5 37–63	3.1%	6.2%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
14	Leeds United	1448	49.0 36–62	2.1%	6.8%	0.0%	0.0
15	Aston Villa	1504	48.9 36–62	2.0%	6.6%	0.0%	0.0
16	Fulham	1441	42.9 31–55	0.3%	22.6%	0.0%	0.0
17	Sunderland	1441	42.1 30–54	0.1%	25.8%	0.0%	0.0
18	Hull City	1330	39.3 28–52	0.1%	42.8%	0.0%	0.0
19	Ipswich Town	1303	31.1 20–44	0.0%	82.3%	0.0%	0.0
20	Coventry City new	1285	31.1 20–43	0.0%	82.4%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in title probability vs the previous board. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO season simulation.