Bundesliga — Validation
Every played match: our pre-match forecast vs. what actually happened. The receipts. 🧾
36 graded matches
Market = de-vigged bookmaker consensus over 36 of 36 graded matches. Both figures above are scored on that same subset. SFMMO trails the closing market by 3.5% on RPS.
Wait — how can 55.6% accuracy still beat a coin-flip on RPS?
Because accuracy and RPS measure different things, on different scales — they're not in competition.
- Accuracy only asks: was our single top pick right? It's blind to the probabilities, and a model almost never makes draw its top pick — so a draw-heavy round drags it down even when the forecast was good.
- RPS grades the whole probability spread (e.g. 55 / 25 / 20) against a uniform “coin-flip” (33 / 33 / 33). The coin-flip never commits, so it's never punished hard — which makes it a surprisingly tough baseline, and means a few % of skill is a genuine edge.
Our committed forecast cuts both ways (lower RPS = better):
| Match | Our forecast | Result | Our RPS | Coin-flip RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite delivers | 55 / 25 / 20 | home win | 0.12 ✓ | 0.28 |
| We back home, it's a draw | 55 / 25 / 20 | draw | 0.17 | 0.11 ✓ |
When a favourite wins we crush the baseline; on a draw, the hedging coin-flip actually beats us. Matchday 1 had 9 draws in 24 games, so the wins and losses partly cancel — the net edge is the “skill” figure above. A few % over uniform is roughly what bookmakers manage, so it's a real, healthy edge.
Matchday 1
| Match | Forecast (1 / X / 2) | Our call | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69.1 / 18.3 / 12.6 | Bayern Munich | 2–0 | 5–1 | ✓ | |
| 20.6 / 22.5 / 56.9 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1–1 | 3–2 | ✗ | |
| 61.3 / 21.9 / 16.9 | RB Leipzig | 1–1 | 3–0 | ✓ | |
| 63.6 / 21.8 / 14.6 | Mainz 05 | 2–0 | 0–0 | ✗ | |
| 41.8 / 27.4 / 30.9 | Union Berlin | 1–1 | 3–3 | ✗ | |
| 32.3 / 25.4 / 42.3 | Hoffenheim | 1–1 | 3–2 | ✗ | |
| 66.1 / 20.2 / 13.7 | Borussia Dortmund | 2–0 | 2–0 | ✓ ⚛ | |
| 44.2 / 24.9 / 30.9 | Freiburg | 1–1 | 4–1 | ✓ | |
| 49.1 / 27.0 / 24.0 | Augsburg | 1–1 | 3–0 | ✓ |
Bayern Munich
VfB Stuttgart
Elversberg
Bayer Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Mainz 05
Paderborn
Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt
1. FC Köln
Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
Freiburg
Werder Bremen
Augsburg
Schalke 04Matchday 2
| Match | Forecast (1 / X / 2) | Our call | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.0 / 22.9 / 22.0 | VfB Stuttgart | 1–1 | 4–1 | ✓ | |
| 32.4 / 23.9 / 43.7 | Borussia Dortmund | 1–1 | 2–3 | ✓ | |
| 59.1 / 22.1 / 18.8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1–1 | 4–0 | ✓ | |
| 55.8 / 23.0 / 21.2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1–1 | 3–4 | ✗ | |
| 22.8 / 22.4 / 54.8 | RB Leipzig | 1–1 | 3–1 | ✗ | |
| 25.6 / 26.0 / 48.4 | Freiburg | 1–1 | 0–1 | ✓ | |
| 9.2 / 16.2 / 74.5 | Bayern Munich | 0–2 | 0–0 | ✗ | |
| 35.8 / 29.0 / 35.2 | Hamburger SV | 1–1 | 0–5 | ✗ | |
| 46.7 / 25.3 / 28.0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–1 | 1–4 | ✗ |
Matchday 3
| Match | Forecast (1 / X / 2) | Our call | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.2 / 27.1 / 23.8 | Union Berlin | 1–1 | 1–3 | ✗ | |
| 80.5 / 13.2 / 6.3 | Borussia Dortmund | 2–0 | 3–0 | ✓ | |
| 43.7 / 23.1 / 33.2 | Hoffenheim | 1–1 | 2–1 | ✓ | |
| 51.3 / 24.4 / 24.4 | Freiburg | 1–1 | 5–0 | ✓ | |
| 33.0 / 25.1 / 41.9 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1–1 | 2–2 | ✗ | |
| 53.6 / 23.9 / 22.5 | Mainz 05 | 1–1 | 1–3 | ✗ | |
| 36.0 / 24.4 / 39.6 | Werder Bremen | 1–1 | 1–1 | ✗ | |
| 73.0 / 17.1 / 9.9 | RB Leipzig | 2–0 | 5–0 | ✓ | |
| 11.2 / 16.6 / 72.1 | Bayern Munich | 0–2 | 1–2 | ✓ |
Matchday 4
| Match | Forecast (1 / X / 2) | Our call | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82.2 / 12.2 / 5.6 | Bayern Munich | 2–0 | 7–0 | ✓ | |
| 42.2 / 25.1 / 32.7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–1 | 2–2 | ✗ | |
| 35.7 / 26.1 / 38.3 | Mainz 05 | 1–1 | 3–4 | ✓ | |
| 39.6 / 26.9 / 33.4 | Hamburger SV | 1–1 | 2–1 | ✓ | |
| 41.9 / 25.2 / 32.9 | Werder Bremen | 1–1 | 3–2 | ✓ | |
| 32.1 / 24.2 / 43.7 | Borussia Dortmund | 1–1 | 0–1 | ✓ | |
| 41.1 / 24.2 / 34.7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1–1 | 2–0 | ✓ | |
| 50.5 / 25.0 / 24.5 | Schalke 04 | 1–1 | 0–0 | ✗ | |
| 22.0 / 23.0 / 55.1 | Hoffenheim | 1–1 | 3–1 | ✗ |
✓ = our most-likely result was correct · ⚛ = exact scoreline nailed · multiclass Brier score 0.585. Click any match for its full forecast breakdown.