All leagues — Validation

Every played match: our pre-match forecast vs. what actually happened. The receipts. 🧾

67 graded matches

Pooled across Premier League, Bundesliga. Every league's own row is below — a pooled figure is weighted by whichever league has played most fixtures, so read them together.
Sign in to include Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1.

By league

The same forecasts, split by competition. Sample sizes differ a lot early in a season, so a league with few graded matches will look noisier than it is.

League	Graded	Outcome accuracy	Avg. RPS
Premier League	40	42.5%	0.2
Bundesliga	27	51.9%	0.214

46.3%

Outcome accuracy

31 / 67 results called

46.3% vs Market 49.3%

9.0%

Exact scoreline

6 / 67 spot‑on

0.205

Avg. RPS (lower better)

coin‑flip baseline 0.231

0.205 vs Market 0.199

11.0%

Skill vs. coin‑flip

RPS improvement over uniform

Market = de-vigged bookmaker consensus over 67 of 67 graded matches. Both figures above are scored on that same subset. SFMMO trails the closing market by 3.1% on RPS.

Outcome accuracy — share of matches where our most-likely result (1 / X / 2) was right. RPS (ranked probability score) grades the whole probability forecast — it rewards being confident and right, and is the standard metric for football results (lower is better, 0 = perfect). Skill is how far the model beats a no-information coin-flip forecast. All numbers are the SFMMO's pre-match probabilities, scored against the final result.

Wait — how can 46.3% accuracy still beat a coin-flip on RPS?

Because accuracy and RPS measure different things, on different scales — they're not in competition.

Accuracy only asks: was our single top pick right? It's blind to the probabilities, and a model almost never makes draw its top pick — so a draw-heavy round drags it down even when the forecast was good.
RPS grades the whole probability spread (e.g. 55 / 25 / 20) against a uniform “coin-flip” (33 / 33 / 33). The coin-flip never commits, so it's never punished hard — which makes it a surprisingly tough baseline, and means a few % of skill is a genuine edge.

Our committed forecast cuts both ways (lower RPS = better):

Match	Our forecast	Result	Our RPS	Coin-flip RPS
Favourite delivers	55 / 25 / 20	home win	0.12 ✓	0.28
We back home, it's a draw	55 / 25 / 20	draw	0.17	0.11 ✓

When a favourite wins we crush the baseline; on a draw, the hedging coin-flip actually beats us. Matchday 1 had 9 draws in 24 games, so the wins and losses partly cancel — the net edge is the “skill” figure above. A few % over uniform is roughly what bookmakers manage, so it's a real, healthy edge.

Matchday 1

Match	Forecast (1 / X / 2)	Our call	Predicted	Actual
Arsenal v Coventry City	77.3 / 14.8 / 7.9	Arsenal	2–0	3–0	✓
Hull City v Manchester United	17.2 / 23.7 / 59.0	Manchester United	0–1	2–0	✗
Everton v Crystal Palace	45.7 / 27.8 / 26.5	Everton	1–1	2–0	✓
Ipswich Town v Sunderland	32.4 / 28.6 / 38.9	Sunderland	1–1	2–1	✗
Nottingham Forest v Leeds United	50.8 / 24.3 / 24.8	Nottingham Forest	1–1	0–1	✗
Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur	49.1 / 24.5 / 26.4	Brentford	1–1	3–0	✓
Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa	42.8 / 27.4 / 29.9	Brighton & Hove Albion	1–1	4–0	✓
Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth	65.0 / 19.9 / 15.1	Manchester City	2–0	2–1	✓
Newcastle United v Liverpool	31.3 / 26.4 / 42.3	Liverpool	1–1	2–2	✗
Fulham v Chelsea	31.1 / 28.0 / 40.9	Chelsea	1–1	2–3	✓
Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart	69.1 / 18.3 / 12.6	Bayern Munich	2–0	5–1	✓
Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen	20.6 / 22.5 / 56.9	Bayer Leverkusen	1–1	3–2	✗
RB Leipzig v Borussia Mönchengladbach	61.3 / 21.9 / 16.9	RB Leipzig	1–1	3–0	✓
Mainz 05 v Paderborn	63.6 / 21.8 / 14.6	Mainz 05	2–0	0–0	✗
Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt	41.8 / 27.4 / 30.9	Union Berlin	1–1	3–3	✗
1. FC Köln v Hoffenheim	32.3 / 25.4 / 42.3	Hoffenheim	1–1	3–2	✗
Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV	66.1 / 20.2 / 13.7	Borussia Dortmund	2–0	2–0	✓ ⚛
Freiburg v Werder Bremen	44.2 / 24.9 / 30.9	Freiburg	1–1	4–1	✓
Augsburg v Schalke 04	49.1 / 27.0 / 24.0	Augsburg	1–1	3–0	✓

Matchday 2

Match	Forecast (1 / X / 2)	Our call	Predicted	Actual
Crystal Palace v Manchester City	22.0 / 25.8 / 52.2	Manchester City	1–1	1–4	✓
Liverpool v Nottingham Forest	60.6 / 22.5 / 16.9	Liverpool	1–1	2–2	✗
AFC Bournemouth v Everton	42.8 / 27.0 / 30.2	AFC Bournemouth	1–1	1–1	✗
Coventry City v Hull City	38.5 / 27.6 / 33.9	Coventry City	1–1	0–1	✗
Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United	42.9 / 25.6 / 31.5	Tottenham Hotspur	1–1	0–2	✗
Chelsea v Brighton & Hove Albion	50.1 / 25.6 / 24.3	Chelsea	1–1	4–3	✓
Leeds United v Brentford	32.0 / 25.3 / 42.7	Brentford	1–1	1–1	✗
Sunderland v Fulham	36.8 / 28.9 / 34.3	Sunderland	1–1	1–0	✓
Manchester United v Ipswich Town	74.4 / 16.7 / 8.9	Manchester United	2–0	5–2	✓
Aston Villa v Arsenal	20.2 / 23.5 / 56.3	Arsenal	1–1	0–1	✓
VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln	55.0 / 22.9 / 22.0	VfB Stuttgart	1–1	4–1	✓
Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund	32.4 / 23.9 / 43.7	Borussia Dortmund	1–1	2–3	✓
Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin	59.1 / 22.1 / 18.8	Bayer Leverkusen	1–1	4–0	✓
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Elversberg	55.8 / 23.0 / 21.2	Borussia Mönchengladbach	1–1	3–4	✗
Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig	22.8 / 22.4 / 54.8	RB Leipzig	1–1	3–1	✗
Paderborn v Freiburg	25.6 / 26.0 / 48.4	Freiburg	1–1	0–1	✓
Schalke 04 v Bayern Munich	9.2 / 16.2 / 74.5	Bayern Munich	0–2	0–0	✗
Hamburger SV v Mainz 05	35.8 / 29.0 / 35.2	Hamburger SV	1–1	0–5	✗
Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg	46.7 / 25.3 / 28.0	Eintracht Frankfurt	1–1	1–4	✗

Matchday 3

Match	Forecast (1 / X / 2)	Our call	Predicted	Actual
Ipswich Town v Liverpool	13.3 / 19.1 / 67.6	Liverpool	0–2	0–2	✓ ⚛
Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth	48.0 / 24.6 / 27.5	Newcastle United	1–1	2–2	✗
Brentford v Sunderland	61.4 / 22.9 / 15.7	Brentford	1–0	1–1	✗
Brighton & Hove Albion v Leeds United	55.2 / 23.3 / 21.5	Brighton & Hove Albion	1–1	1–1	✗
Fulham v Crystal Palace	46.7 / 27.0 / 26.4	Fulham	1–1	2–3	✗
Manchester City v Coventry City	83.1 / 11.6 / 5.3	Manchester City	2–0	1–0	✓
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur	48.6 / 25.4 / 26.1	Nottingham Forest	1–1	0–0	✗
Hull City v Aston Villa	32.4 / 28.3 / 39.3	Aston Villa	1–1	0–0	✗
Everton v Manchester United	32.1 / 27.6 / 40.3	Manchester United	1–1	2–2	✗
Arsenal v Chelsea	53.2 / 24.2 / 22.6	Arsenal	1–1	2–1	✓
Union Berlin v Schalke 04	49.2 / 27.1 / 23.8	Union Berlin	1–1	1–3	✗
Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn	80.5 / 13.2 / 6.3	Borussia Dortmund	2–0	3–0	✓
Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart	43.7 / 23.1 / 33.2	Hoffenheim	1–1	2–1	✓
Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach	51.3 / 24.4 / 24.4	Freiburg	1–1	5–0	✓
Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen	33.0 / 25.1 / 41.9	Bayer Leverkusen	1–1	2–2	✗
Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt	53.6 / 23.9 / 22.5	Mainz 05	1–1	1–3	✗
1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen	36.0 / 24.4 / 39.6	Werder Bremen	1–1	1–1	✗
RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV	73.0 / 17.1 / 9.9	RB Leipzig	2–0	5–0	✓
Elversberg v Bayern Munich	11.2 / 16.6 / 72.1	Bayern Munich	0–2	1–2	✓

Round of 32

Match	Forecast (1 / X / 2)	Our call	Predicted	Actual
AFC Bournemouth v Brentford	39.2 / 25.4 / 35.4	AFC Bournemouth	1–1	2–2	✗
Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest	40.4 / 27.9 / 31.6	Aston Villa	1–1	1–2	✗
Chelsea v Hull City	71.5 / 18.6 / 10.0	Chelsea	2–0	2–2	✗
Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town	62.2 / 21.9 / 15.9	Crystal Palace	2–0	2–3	✗
Liverpool v Fulham	65.7 / 20.7 / 13.6	Liverpool	2–0	0–0	✗
Tottenham Hotspur v Everton	40.1 / 27.9 / 32.0	Tottenham Hotspur	1–1	0–0	✗
Sunderland v Arsenal	17.7 / 24.7 / 57.6	Arsenal	0–1	0–2	✓
Coventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion	22.7 / 24.8 / 52.4	Brighton & Hove Albion	1–1	0–5	✓
Manchester United v Manchester City	38.9 / 26.3 / 34.8	Manchester United	1–1	0–1	✗
Leeds United v Newcastle United	39.6 / 26.0 / 34.4	Leeds United	1–1	4–1	✓

✓ = our most-likely result was correct · ⚛ = exact scoreline nailed · multiclass Brier score 0.614. Click any match for its full forecast breakdown.