Bundesliga
The Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) — a Bayesian regression model for match outcome forecasts.
9 fixtures
Win / Draw / Loss figures are posterior means from the Bayesian model, each shown with its
90% credible interval.
You're viewing the current round (Matchday 3).
Log in to see forecasts for every matchday.
Matchday 3
Fri, Sep 11
Most likely: 1–1
Union Berlin
xG
1.52 · 0.98
Schalke 04
Win: Union Berlin
49.2%
44.0–54.4
Draw
27.1%
25.2–28.9
Win: Schalke 04
23.8%
20.0–27.7
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 2–0
Borussia Dortmund
xG
2.80 · 0.68
Paderborn
Win: Borussia Dortmund
80.5%
74.6–85.8
Draw
13.2%
10.0–16.6
Win: Paderborn
6.3%
4.1–9.0
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 1–1
Hoffenheim
xG
1.87 · 1.62
VfB Stuttgart
Win: Hoffenheim
43.7%
39.6–47.8
Draw
23.1%
22.2–23.9
Win: VfB Stuttgart
33.2%
29.5–37.0
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 1–1
Freiburg
xG
1.79 · 1.17
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Win: Freiburg
51.3%
47.2–55.4
Draw
24.4%
23.1–25.6
Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach
24.4%
21.3–27.6
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 1–1
Augsburg
xG
1.42 · 1.62
Bayer Leverkusen
Win: Augsburg
33.0%
29.2–37.0
Draw
25.1%
24.1–26.0
Win: Bayer Leverkusen
41.9%
37.8–46.0
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 1–1
Mainz 05
xG
1.84 · 1.12
Eintracht Frankfurt
Win: Mainz 05
53.6%
49.6–57.6
Draw
23.9%
22.6–25.2
Win: Eintracht Frankfurt
22.5%
19.6–25.5
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 1–1
1. FC Köln
xG
1.56 · 1.65
Werder Bremen
Win: 1. FC Köln
36.0%
32.2–39.8
Draw
24.4%
23.6–25.3
Win: Werder Bremen
39.6%
35.7–43.6
Sun, Sep 13
Most likely: 2–0
RB Leipzig
xG
2.43 · 0.79
Hamburger SV
Win: RB Leipzig
73.0%
69.1–77.0
Draw
17.1%
15.0–19.1
Win: Hamburger SV
9.9%
7.9–11.9
Sun, Sep 13
Most likely: 0–2
Elversberg
xG
0.86 · 2.62
Bayern Munich
Win: Elversberg
11.2%
2.5–24.6
Draw
16.6%
6.2–26.9
Win: Bayern Munich
72.1%
49.4–91.2