Bundesliga
The Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) — a Bayesian regression model for match outcome forecasts.
9 fixtures
Win / Draw / Loss figures are posterior means from the Bayesian model, each shown with its
90% credible interval.
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Matchday 1
Fri, Aug 28
Most likely: 2–0
Bayern Munich
xG
2.38 · 0.93
VfB Stuttgart
Win: Bayern Munich
69.1%
65.8–72.3
Draw
18.3%
16.8–19.8
Win: VfB Stuttgart
12.6%
10.8–14.5
Sat, Aug 29
Most likely: 1–1
Elversberg
xG
1.06 · 1.97
Bayer Leverkusen
Win: Elversberg
20.6%
6.9–39.2
Draw
22.5%
12.7–30.6
Win: Bayer Leverkusen
56.9%
33.7–80.1
Sat, Aug 29
Most likely: 1–1
RB Leipzig
xG
2.02 · 0.97
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Win: RB Leipzig
61.3%
57.0–65.5
Draw
21.9%
20.1–23.6
Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach
16.9%
14.2–19.8
Sat, Aug 29
Most likely: 2–0
Mainz 05
xG
1.99 · 0.84
Paderborn
Win: Mainz 05
63.6%
56.3–70.6
Draw
21.8%
18.6–24.9
Win: Paderborn
14.6%
10.5–19.3
Sat, Aug 29
Most likely: 1–1
Union Berlin
xG
1.43 · 1.19
Eintracht Frankfurt
Win: Union Berlin
41.8%
36.9–46.9
Draw
27.4%
26.0–28.8
Win: Eintracht Frankfurt
30.9%
26.6–35.3
Sat, Aug 29
Most likely: 1–1
1. FC Köln
xG
1.37 · 1.60
Hoffenheim
Win: 1. FC Köln
32.3%
28.5–36.1
Draw
25.4%
24.5–26.4
Win: Hoffenheim
42.3%
38.2–46.4
Sat, Aug 29
Most likely: 2–0
Borussia Dortmund
xG
2.16 · 0.88
Hamburger SV
Win: Borussia Dortmund
66.1%
62.5–69.6
Draw
20.2%
18.6–21.8
Win: Hamburger SV
13.7%
11.7–15.9
Sun, Aug 30
Most likely: 1–1
Freiburg
xG
1.68 · 1.37
Werder Bremen
Win: Freiburg
44.2%
40.4–48.0
Draw
24.9%
24.0–25.8
Win: Werder Bremen
30.9%
27.7–34.3
Sun, Aug 30
Most likely: 1–1
Augsburg
xG
1.53 · 0.99
Schalke 04
Win: Augsburg
49.1%
44.7–53.4
Draw
27.0%
25.4–28.4
Win: Schalke 04
24.0%
20.9–27.3