Bundesliga
The Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) — a Bayesian regression model for match outcome forecasts.
9 fixtures
Win / Draw / Loss figures are posterior means from the Bayesian model, each shown with its
90% credible interval.
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Matchday 5
Fri, Oct 9
Most likely: 2–1
Borussia Dortmund
xG
2.52 · 1.11
Werder Bremen
Win: Borussia Dortmund
67.6%
64.1–70.9
Draw
18.0%
16.6–19.4
Win: Werder Bremen
14.5%
12.4–16.6
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 2–1
Hoffenheim
xG
2.17 · 1.08
Hamburger SV
Win: Hoffenheim
61.7%
57.4–65.9
Draw
20.9%
19.2–22.5
Win: Hamburger SV
17.4%
14.8–20.3
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 0–2
Augsburg
xG
0.98 · 2.18
Bayern Munich
Win: Augsburg
15.4%
13.0–17.9
Draw
20.4%
18.8–22.0
Win: Bayern Munich
64.2%
60.3–68.0
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 1–1
Mainz 05
xG
1.43 · 1.61
Bayer Leverkusen
Win: Mainz 05
33.5%
30.1–37.1
Draw
25.1%
24.3–26.0
Win: Bayer Leverkusen
41.3%
37.7–45.1
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 1–1
Union Berlin
xG
1.67 · 1.16
Elversberg
Win: Union Berlin
48.2%
26.2–71.5
Draw
25.0%
16.7–32.3
Win: Elversberg
26.8%
10.7–47.4
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 1–1
Paderborn
xG
1.11 · 1.79
VfB Stuttgart
Win: Paderborn
23.1%
17.2–29.6
Draw
24.4%
21.9–26.7
Win: VfB Stuttgart
52.5%
44.7–60.3
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 2–1
RB Leipzig
xG
2.31 · 1.05
Eintracht Frankfurt
Win: RB Leipzig
64.9%
60.5–69.3
Draw
19.5%
17.7–21.3
Win: Eintracht Frankfurt
15.5%
12.8–18.5
Sun, Oct 11
Most likely: 1–1
1. FC Köln
xG
1.58 · 1.36
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Win: 1. FC Köln
42.1%
38.0–46.1
Draw
25.6%
24.6–26.6
Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach
32.3%
28.8–36.1
Sun, Oct 11
Most likely: 1–1
Freiburg
xG
1.81 · 0.93
Schalke 04
Win: Freiburg
57.5%
53.4–61.5
Draw
24.0%
22.3–25.6
Win: Schalke 04
18.5%
16.0–21.2