Skill Above Replacement
Comparing Player Skill beyond Team Performance
Understanding SAR & PAR
SAR (Skill Above Replacement)
Expected goals per game based purely on the player's intrinsic skill (α) — relative to a replacement-level player. This isolates "how good is this player at scoring" independent of team context.
PAR (Performance Above Replacement)
Expected goals per game accounting for both skill (α) and team strength — relative to a replacement-level player. This reflects what the model actually predicts given the full picture.
SAR > PAR
The player's raw skill exceeds their observed/predicted performance. They're being "held back" by their team context, be it because of playing for a weaker team, getting fewer quality chances, or playing in a more defensive system. Their skill is higher than their output suggests.
SAR: Skill Above Replacement
SAR - PAR: Pure Skill Component
SAR Rankings
| Rank | Player | Low (4%) | Median | High (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/2850 |
Lionel Messi
|
0.411 | 0.490 | 0.571 |
| 2/2850 |
Erling Haaland
|
0.329 | 0.489 | 0.662 |
| 3/2850 |
Cristiano Ronaldo
|
0.383 | 0.459 | 0.539 |
| 4/2850 |
Kylian Mbappe
|
0.293 | 0.441 | 0.598 |
| 5/2850 |
Harry Kane
|
0.353 | 0.440 | 0.541 |
| 6/2850 |
Robert Lewandowski
|
0.351 | 0.437 | 0.528 |
| 16/2850 |
Mohamed Salah
|
0.180 | 0.255 | 0.340 |
SAR-PAR Rankings (Pure Skill)
| Rank | Player | Low (4%) | Median | High (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2832/2850 |
Harry Kane
|
-0.163 | -0.064 | 0.035 |
| 2836/2850 |
Mohamed Salah
|
-0.150 | -0.068 | 0.016 |
| 2846/2850 |
Robert Lewandowski
|
-0.190 | -0.096 | -0.001 |
| 2847/2850 |
Erling Haaland
|
-0.277 | -0.097 | 0.076 |
| 2848/2850 |
Kylian Mbappe
|
-0.269 | -0.104 | 0.058 |
| 2849/2850 |
Cristiano Ronaldo
|
-0.193 | -0.108 | -0.028 |
| 2850/2850 |
Lionel Messi
|
-0.204 | -0.120 | -0.036 |