Who scores, who to captain, who keeps a clean sheet

Captaincy board · Gameweek 7

Forecasts frozen before kick-off

1

Erling Haaland

Manchester City v

Ipswich Town (H)

Manchester City v

Ipswich Town (H)

90% range 64–74%

69%

Banker

2

Alexander Isak

Liverpool v

Brentford (A)

Liverpool v

Brentford (A)

90% range 42–53%

47%

Solid

3

Joao Pedro

Chelsea v

Everton (A)

Chelsea v

Everton (A)

90% range 32–45%

38%

Punt

4

Thierno Barry

Everton v

Chelsea (H)

Everton v

Chelsea (H)

90% range 30–46%

38%

Punt

5

Nicolas Jackson

Aston Villa v

Newcastle United (A)

Aston Villa v

Newcastle United (A)

90% range 28–41%

34%

Solid

6

Kai Havertz

Arsenal v

Nottingham Forest (A)

Arsenal v

Nottingham Forest (A)

90% range 28–38%

33%

Solid

7

Brian Brobbey

Sunderland v

AFC Bournemouth (A)

Sunderland v

AFC Bournemouth (A)

90% range 25–43%

33%

Punt

8

Marcus Tavernier

AFC Bournemouth v

Sunderland (H)

AFC Bournemouth v

Sunderland (H)

90% range 26–40%

33%

Punt

Banker Solid Punt How sharply the model knows a player — not how good the pick is. A punt can top the board.

The percentage is the chance he scores at least once; the shaded bar is its 90% range. Fitted players only, ranked from a pool of 163.

In FPL goal points · Gameweek 7

Expected goals × what FPL pays for the goal

A midfielder's goal is worth 5 points and a forward's 4, so this is where attacking midfielders catch up with strikers. Same players and colours as the board above.

1

Erling HaalandFWD

Manchester City v

Ipswich Town (H)

Manchester City v

Ipswich Town (H)

1.08 xG × 4 · scores 69%

4.3pts

Banker

2

Alexander IsakFWD

Liverpool v

Brentford (A)

Liverpool v

Brentford (A)

0.57 xG × 4 · scores 47%

2.3pts

Solid

3

Marcus TavernierMID

AFC Bournemouth v

Sunderland (H)

AFC Bournemouth v

Sunderland (H)

0.37 xG × 5 · scores 33%

1.8pts

Punt

4

Rayan CherkiMID

Manchester City v

Ipswich Town (H)

Manchester City v

Ipswich Town (H)

0.35 xG × 5 · scores 32%

1.8pts

Punt

5

Joao PedroFWD

Chelsea v

Everton (A)

Chelsea v

Everton (A)

0.44 xG × 4 · scores 38%

1.8pts

Punt

6

Bryan MbeumoMID

Manchester United v

Leeds United (A)

Manchester United v

Leeds United (A)

0.35 xG × 5 · scores 31%

1.8pts

Solid

7

Bukayo SakaMID

Arsenal v

Nottingham Forest (A)

Arsenal v

Nottingham Forest (A)

0.35 xG × 5 · scores 31%

1.8pts

Solid

8

Thierno BarryFWD

Everton v

Chelsea (H)

Everton v

Chelsea (H)

0.43 xG × 4 · scores 38%

1.7pts

Punt

Goals only — no assists, clean sheets or bonus, so it is the goal part of a captain's haul, not all of it. Expected goals count 3+ as 3. Positions are FPL's own (Saka and Palmer are midfielders there), and FPL pays 10 for a goalkeeper's goal and 6 for a defender's. 2 players FPL does not list are left out.

Clean sheets · Gameweek 7

The opponent's chance of scoring nothing

For defenders and goalkeepers: FPL pays 4 points for a clean sheet (a midfielder 1), so the right-hand number is what the clean sheet alone is worth to a defender who plays 60 minutes.

1

Manchester City

v

Ipswich Town (H)

v

Ipswich Town (H)

90% range 47–59%

53%

2.1 pts

2

Tottenham Hotspur

v

Coventry City (H)

v

Coventry City (H)

90% range 24–60%

42%

1.7 pts

3

Fulham

v

Hull City (H)

v

Hull City (H)

90% range 36–45%

40%

1.6 pts

4

Brighton & Hove Albion

v

Crystal Palace (H)

v

Crystal Palace (H)

90% range 34–42%

38%

1.5 pts

5

AFC Bournemouth

v

Sunderland (H)

v

Sunderland (H)

90% range 33–41%

37%

1.5 pts

6

Arsenal

v

Nottingham Forest (A)

v

Nottingham Forest (A)

90% range 29–38%

34%

1.3 pts

7

Chelsea

v

Everton (A)

v

Everton (A)

90% range 26–32%

29%

1.2 pts

8

Manchester United

v

Leeds United (A)

v

Leeds United (A)

90% range 25–33%

29%

1.2 pts

9

Newcastle United

v

Aston Villa (H)

v

Aston Villa (H)

90% range 26–31%

29%

1.1 pts

10

Brentford

v

Liverpool (H)

v

Liverpool (H)

90% range 22–30%

26%

1.0 pts

11

Everton

v

Chelsea (H)

v

Chelsea (H)

90% range 24–29%

26%

1.0 pts

12

Liverpool

v

Brentford (A)

v

Brentford (A)

90% range 19–27%

23%

0.9 pts

13

Leeds United

v

Manchester United (H)

v

Manchester United (H)

90% range 17–23%

20%

0.8 pts

14

Aston Villa

v

Newcastle United (A)

v

Newcastle United (A)

90% range 17–22%

20%

0.8 pts

15

Hull City

v

Fulham (A)

v

Fulham (A)

90% range 16–23%

19%

0.8 pts

16

Nottingham Forest

v

Arsenal (H)

v

Arsenal (H)

90% range 16–23%

19%

0.8 pts

17

Sunderland

v

AFC Bournemouth (A)

v

AFC Bournemouth (A)

90% range 14–20%

17%

0.7 pts

18

Crystal Palace

v

Brighton & Hove Albion (A)

v

Brighton & Hove Albion (A)

90% range 14–20%

17%

0.7 pts

19

Coventry City

v

Tottenham Hotspur (A)

v

Tottenham Hotspur (A)

90% range 4–30%

15%

0.6 pts

20

Ipswich Town

v

Manchester City (A)

v

Manchester City (A)

90% range 2–5%

3%

0.1 pts

Our record, in the open

Season to date, our weekly top-20 Premier League picks have scored 31.4% of the time, against 28.0% for a naive benchmark — 102 graded picks. Every forecast is frozen before kick-off and never revised.

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