Player X-Ray
Revealing True Skill vs Team Context
Skill vs Team Context Matrix
Understanding the X-Ray
SAR (Skill Above Replacement)
Expected goals per game based purely on the player's intrinsic skill (α) — relative to a replacement-level player. This isolates "how good is this player at scoring" independent of team context.
PAR (Performance Above Replacement)
Expected goals per game accounting for both skill (α) and team strength — relative to a replacement-level player. This reflects what the model actually predicts given the full picture.
SAR > PAR
The player's raw skill exceeds their observed/predicted performance. They're being "held back" by their team context, be it because of playing for a weaker team, getting fewer quality chances, or playing in a more defensive system. Their skill is higher than their output suggests.
Tip: Hover over points to see player details. Click and drag to zoom into specific regions. Double-click to reset the view.