Premier League
The Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) — a Bayesian regression model for match outcome forecasts.
10 fixtures
Win / Draw / Loss figures are posterior means from the Bayesian model, each shown with its
90% credible interval.
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Matchday 6
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 2–0
Arsenal
xG
2.31 · 0.92
Leeds United
Win: Arsenal
68.0%
63.5–72.3
Draw
18.9%
16.9–21.0
Win: Leeds United
13.0%
10.6–15.8
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 1–1
Aston Villa
xG
1.33 · 1.45
Brentford
Win: Aston Villa
34.0%
29.1–39.0
Draw
26.6%
25.3–27.9
Win: Brentford
39.5%
34.3–44.8
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 1–1
Chelsea
xG
1.96 · 1.10
AFC Bournemouth
Win: Chelsea
56.7%
52.1–61.4
Draw
22.8%
21.2–24.3
Win: AFC Bournemouth
20.5%
17.2–23.9
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 1–1
Ipswich Town
xG
1.13 · 1.51
Fulham
Win: Ipswich Town
27.9%
21.6–34.8
Draw
26.8%
24.7–28.9
Win: Fulham
45.3%
37.8–52.8
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 1–1
Sunderland
xG
1.05 · 1.51
Brighton & Hove Albion
Win: Sunderland
25.6%
21.7–29.7
Draw
27.0%
25.4–28.6
Win: Brighton & Hove Albion
47.3%
42.3–52.4
Sat, Oct 10
Most likely: 1–1
Manchester United
xG
1.99 · 0.95
Tottenham Hotspur
Win: Manchester United
61.1%
57.8–64.3
Draw
22.2%
20.8–23.5
Win: Tottenham Hotspur
16.8%
14.8–18.9
Sun, Oct 11
Most likely: 1–1
Crystal Palace
xG
1.31 · 1.21
Nottingham Forest
Win: Crystal Palace
38.2%
32.6–44.0
Draw
28.2%
26.7–29.8
Win: Nottingham Forest
33.6%
28.2–39.3
Sun, Oct 11
Most likely: 1–1
Hull City
xG
1.00 · 1.29
Everton
Win: Hull City
28.3%
23.8–32.9
Draw
29.4%
27.8–31.0
Win: Everton
42.4%
37.4–47.5
Sun, Oct 11
Most likely: 1–1
Liverpool
xG
1.42 · 1.35
Manchester City
Win: Liverpool
38.2%
34.8–41.5
Draw
26.7%
25.9–27.5
Win: Manchester City
35.2%
31.9–38.5
Mon, Oct 12
Most likely: 1–1
Coventry City
xG
1.11 · 1.67
Newcastle United
Win: Coventry City
25.7%
10.0–46.1
Draw
25.1%
16.6–32.6
Win: Newcastle United
49.3%
27.0–72.7