Premier League
The Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) — a Bayesian regression model for match outcome forecasts.
10 fixtures
Win / Draw / Loss figures are posterior means from the Bayesian model, each shown with its
90% credible interval.
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Matchday 4
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 1–1
AFC Bournemouth
xG
1.54 · 1.46
Brentford
Win: AFC Bournemouth
39.2%
33.2–45.3
Draw
25.4%
24.0–26.8
Win: Brentford
35.4%
29.8–41.2
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 1–1
Aston Villa
xG
1.36 · 1.17
Nottingham Forest
Win: Aston Villa
40.4%
35.0–46.0
Draw
27.9%
26.4–29.5
Win: Nottingham Forest
31.6%
26.7–36.8
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 2–0
Chelsea
xG
2.22 · 0.70
Hull City
Win: Chelsea
71.5%
66.4–76.3
Draw
18.6%
16.0–21.2
Win: Hull City
10.0%
7.6–12.6
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 2–0
Crystal Palace
xG
2.00 · 0.91
Ipswich Town
Win: Crystal Palace
62.2%
54.7–69.5
Draw
21.9%
18.6–25.0
Win: Ipswich Town
15.9%
11.5–20.9
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 2–0
Liverpool
xG
2.09 · 0.84
Fulham
Win: Liverpool
65.7%
62.3–69.2
Draw
20.7%
19.1–22.2
Win: Fulham
13.6%
11.7–15.7
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 1–1
Tottenham Hotspur
xG
1.36 · 1.19
Everton
Win: Tottenham Hotspur
40.1%
37.0–43.3
Draw
27.9%
27.0–28.7
Win: Everton
32.0%
29.1–35.0
Sat, Sep 12
Most likely: 0–1
Sunderland
xG
0.86 · 1.74
Arsenal
Win: Sunderland
17.7%
15.4–20.2
Draw
24.7%
23.1–26.1
Win: Arsenal
57.6%
53.8–61.3
Sun, Sep 13
Most likely: 1–1
Coventry City
xG
1.01 · 1.72
Brighton & Hove Albion
Win: Coventry City
22.7%
8.3–42.1
Draw
24.8%
15.3–32.9
Win: Brighton & Hove Albion
52.4%
29.5–75.6
Sun, Sep 13
Most likely: 1–1
Manchester United
xG
1.46 · 1.37
Manchester City
Win: Manchester United
38.9%
35.4–42.3
Draw
26.3%
25.5–27.1
Win: Manchester City
34.8%
31.6–38.3
Mon, Sep 14
Most likely: 1–1
Leeds United
xG
1.50 · 1.39
Newcastle United
Win: Leeds United
39.6%
35.0–44.4
Draw
26.0%
24.8–27.1
Win: Newcastle United
34.4%
30.0–38.9