Premier League
The Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) — a Bayesian regression model for match outcome forecasts.
10 fixtures
Win / Draw / Loss figures are posterior means from the Bayesian model, each shown with its
90% credible interval.
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Matchday 1
Fri, Aug 21
Most likely: 2–0
Arsenal
xG
2.73 · 0.69
Coventry City
Win: Arsenal
77.3%
55.7–93.5
Draw
14.8%
4.8–26.0
Win: Coventry City
7.9%
1.5–18.3
Sat, Aug 22
Most likely: 0–1
Hull City
xG
0.88 · 1.82
Manchester United
Win: Hull City
17.2%
13.9–20.9
Draw
23.7%
21.6–25.8
Win: Manchester United
59.0%
53.7–64.3
Sat, Aug 22
Most likely: 1–1
Everton
xG
1.44 · 1.04
Crystal Palace
Win: Everton
45.7%
41.9–49.4
Draw
27.8%
26.6–29.0
Win: Crystal Palace
26.5%
23.5–29.7
Sat, Aug 22
Most likely: 1–1
Ipswich Town
xG
1.15 · 1.29
Sunderland
Win: Ipswich Town
32.4%
25.6–39.6
Draw
28.6%
26.6–30.8
Win: Sunderland
38.9%
32.0–46.3
Sat, Aug 22
Most likely: 1–1
Nottingham Forest
xG
1.79 · 1.19
Leeds United
Win: Nottingham Forest
50.8%
43.8–58.1
Draw
24.3%
22.1–26.5
Win: Leeds United
24.8%
19.5–30.6
Sat, Aug 22
Most likely: 1–1
Brentford
xG
1.76 · 1.24
Tottenham Hotspur
Win: Brentford
49.1%
43.6–54.6
Draw
24.5%
22.9–26.1
Win: Tottenham Hotspur
26.4%
22.1–31.0
Sun, Aug 23
Most likely: 1–1
Brighton & Hove Albion
xG
1.44 · 1.16
Aston Villa
Win: Brighton & Hove Albion
42.8%
38.3–47.3
Draw
27.4%
26.1–28.6
Win: Aston Villa
29.9%
26.0–33.8
Sun, Aug 23
Most likely: 2–0
Manchester City
xG
2.24 · 1.00
AFC Bournemouth
Win: Manchester City
65.0%
60.8–69.2
Draw
19.9%
18.1–21.6
Win: AFC Bournemouth
15.1%
12.5–17.8
Sun, Aug 23
Most likely: 1–1
Newcastle United
xG
1.27 · 1.51
Liverpool
Win: Newcastle United
31.3%
28.2–34.4
Draw
26.4%
25.6–27.3
Win: Liverpool
42.3%
39.0–45.7
Mon, Aug 24
Most likely: 1–1
Fulham
xG
1.16 · 1.37
Chelsea
Win: Fulham
31.1%
28.1–34.3
Draw
28.0%
27.1–28.9
Win: Chelsea
40.9%
37.6–44.3