World Cup 2026 — Champion Odds

Each team's road to the title, simulated by the SFMMO bracket model.

Updated after each matchday

Forecast vintage: Pre Matchday 1 Pre Matchday 2 Pre Matchday 3 Pre Round of 32 Pre Round of 16 Pre Quarter-finals Pre Semi-finals Pre Final Final result

Showing the forecast exactly as it stood before this matchday — the receipts. 🧾

Probabilities of reaching each knockout round and of winning the title, from a full tournament simulation (group stage incl. best third-placed seeding, then the knockout bracket). Columns sum across teams to the round's slot count — e.g. Champion sums to 100%, Final to 200%. Click a column header to sort.

Title Odds Tracker

How each nation's championship probability has evolved across forecast updates. Pick any set of teams to compare.

#	Team	Group	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion	Δ
1	Belgium	G	100.0%	100.0%	87.4%	53.5%	33.3%	20.3%	▲ 4.1
2	France	I	100.0%	100.0%	80.7%	58.4%	31.8%	19.3%	▲ 7.7
3	Brazil	C	100.0%	100.0%	78.0%	42.6%	25.5%	12.5%	▲ 4.3
4	England	L	100.0%	100.0%	73.7%	41.0%	24.5%	12.3%	▲ 0.8
5	Argentina	J	100.0%	100.0%	84.2%	52.0%	25.9%	12.1%	▲ 1.8
6	Spain	H	100.0%	100.0%	47.6%	21.4%	10.9%	5.4%	▲ 0.4
7	Portugal	K	100.0%	100.0%	52.4%	22.5%	10.8%	5.2%	▲ 1.2
8	Switzerland	B	100.0%	100.0%	58.3%	28.7%	11.8%	4.3%	▼ -0.5
9	Morocco	C	100.0%	100.0%	55.4%	23.4%	9.2%	4.0%	▲ 0.6
10	Colombia	K	100.0%	100.0%	41.7%	16.7%	5.4%	1.7%	▲ 0.3
11	Norway	I	100.0%	100.0%	22.1%	7.6%	3.2%	1.1%	0.0
12	Mexico	A	100.0%	100.0%	26.3%	8.8%	3.3%	0.9%	▲ 0.3
13	Canada	B	100.0%	100.0%	44.6%	10.8%	2.2%	0.5%	▲ 0.3
14	Paraguay	D	100.0%	100.0%	19.3%	7.4%	1.3%	0.4%	▲ 0.3
15	United States	D	100.0%	100.0%	12.6%	2.6%	0.5%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
16	Egypt	G	100.0%	100.0%	15.8%	2.7%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0
17	Curaçao	E	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
18	Germany	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -9.0
19	Croatia	L	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -5.2
20	Ghana	L	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
21	South Korea	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
22	Uzbekistan	K	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
23	Czechia	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
24	DR Congo	K	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
25	Bosnia & Herzegovina	B	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.2
26	Austria	J	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.3
27	Jordan	J	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
28	Qatar	B	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
29	Algeria	J	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
30	Senegal	I	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
31	Haiti	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
32	Iraq	I	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
33	Scotland	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
34	Uruguay	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
35	Australia	D	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.7
36	Saudi Arabia	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
37	Cape Verde	H	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
38	New Zealand	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
39	Iran	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
40	Türkiye	D	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
41	South Africa	A	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
42	Tunisia	F	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
43	Sweden	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.5
44	Netherlands	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -2.3
45	Japan	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -1.8
46	Ivory Coast	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
47	Ecuador	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -1.1
48	Panama	L	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in championship probability (percentage points) vs the previous forecast. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO tournament simulation.