World Cup 2026 — Champion Odds

Each team's road to the title, simulated by the SFMMO bracket model.

Updated after each matchday

Forecast vintage: Pre Matchday 1 Pre Matchday 2 Pre Matchday 3 Pre Round of 32 Pre Round of 16 Pre Quarter-finals Pre Semi-finals Pre Final

Showing the forecast exactly as it stood before this matchday — the receipts. 🧾

Probabilities of reaching each knockout round and of winning the title, from a full tournament simulation (group stage incl. best third-placed seeding, then the knockout bracket). Columns sum across teams to the round's slot count — e.g. Champion sums to 100%, Final to 200%. Click a column header to sort.

Title Odds Tracker

How each nation's championship probability has evolved across forecast updates. Pick any set of teams to compare.

#	Team	Group	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion	Δ
1	Belgium	G	100.0%	82.7%	71.3%	43.0%	25.3%	16.2%	▲ 2.7
2	France	I	100.0%	73.3%	44.5%	32.1%	18.2%	11.6%	▼ -1.4
3	England	L	100.0%	80.7%	57.9%	35.7%	22.3%	11.5%	▲ 1.3
4	Argentina	J	100.0%	79.7%	63.2%	42.2%	23.1%	10.3%	▲ 3.2
5	Germany	E	100.0%	82.8%	43.1%	28.6%	15.0%	9.0%	▼ -3.0
6	Brazil	C	100.0%	61.1%	47.0%	28.0%	17.1%	8.2%	▲ 0.3
7	Croatia	L	100.0%	43.7%	27.1%	15.6%	8.5%	5.2%	▼ -3.4
8	Spain	H	100.0%	75.8%	36.4%	18.6%	8.9%	5.0%	▼ -0.8
9	Switzerland	B	100.0%	76.9%	51.0%	27.2%	12.6%	4.8%	▲ 2.3
10	Portugal	K	100.0%	56.3%	30.9%	15.1%	7.5%	4.0%	▼ -1.6
11	Morocco	C	100.0%	50.1%	37.1%	15.6%	6.9%	3.5%	▲ 0.1
12	Netherlands	F	100.0%	49.9%	38.3%	13.7%	5.3%	2.3%	▲ 0.7
13	Japan	F	100.0%	38.9%	24.4%	10.9%	5.5%	1.8%	0.0
14	Colombia	K	100.0%	59.8%	27.6%	11.9%	4.6%	1.4%	▲ 0.5
15	Ecuador	E	100.0%	60.8%	20.6%	8.1%	3.1%	1.1%	▲ 0.9
16	Norway	I	100.0%	66.0%	22.4%	8.8%	3.8%	1.0%	0.0
17	Australia	D	100.0%	75.2%	25.6%	10.3%	3.1%	0.7%	▲ 0.5
18	Mexico	A	100.0%	39.2%	14.0%	5.1%	2.1%	0.6%	0.0
19	Sweden	F	100.0%	26.7%	8.2%	3.6%	1.0%	0.5%	▼ -0.1
20	Austria	J	100.0%	24.2%	5.6%	1.7%	0.6%	0.3%	▲ 0.1
21	Canada	B	100.0%	69.6%	19.4%	4.2%	0.8%	0.2%	▼ -0.1
22	Bosnia & Herzegovina	B	100.0%	57.0%	11.5%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%	▲ 0.1
23	Ghana	L	100.0%	40.2%	12.4%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0
24	DR Congo	K	100.0%	19.3%	7.6%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%	▲ 0.1
25	Senegal	I	100.0%	17.3%	8.9%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%	▲ 0.1
26	United States	D	100.0%	43.0%	8.3%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
27	Ivory Coast	E	100.0%	34.0%	6.2%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	▲ 0.1
28	Paraguay	D	100.0%	17.2%	4.2%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0
29	Cape Verde	H	100.0%	20.3%	7.1%	1.7%	0.3%	0.1%	▲ 0.1
30	Algeria	J	100.0%	23.1%	9.0%	2.6%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0
31	South Africa	A	100.0%	30.4%	5.2%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0
32	Egypt	G	100.0%	24.8%	4.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0
33	Jordan	J	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
34	Curaçao	E	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.2
35	Türkiye	D	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
36	Scotland	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.3
37	Haiti	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
38	Uzbekistan	K	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
39	Qatar	B	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
40	Czechia	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
41	South Korea	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.4
42	Panama	L	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
43	Uruguay	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.8
44	Iraq	I	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
45	Saudi Arabia	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
46	New Zealand	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
47	Iran	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.6
48	Tunisia	F	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in championship probability (percentage points) vs the previous forecast. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO tournament simulation.