World Cup 2026 — Champion Odds

Each team's road to the title, simulated by the SFMMO bracket model.

Updated after each matchday

Forecast vintage: Pre Matchday 1 Pre Matchday 2 Pre Matchday 3 Pre Round of 32 Pre Round of 16 Pre Quarter-finals Pre Semi-finals Pre Final

Showing the forecast exactly as it stood before this matchday — the receipts. 🧾

Probabilities of reaching each knockout round and of winning the title, from a full tournament simulation (group stage incl. best third-placed seeding, then the knockout bracket). Columns sum across teams to the round's slot count — e.g. Champion sums to 100%, Final to 200%. Click a column header to sort.

Title Odds Tracker

How each nation's championship probability has evolved across forecast updates. Pick any set of teams to compare.

#	Team	Group	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion	Δ
1	Belgium	G	99.4%	81.0%	64.5%	42.4%	26.4%	16.2%	—
2	France	I	96.1%	75.1%	48.6%	33.6%	20.0%	12.4%	—
3	Germany	E	96.5%	75.9%	46.1%	30.8%	17.1%	10.1%	—
4	Croatia	L	94.9%	72.1%	50.5%	30.6%	18.4%	9.9%	—
5	England	L	94.0%	68.8%	47.2%	28.3%	16.2%	8.5%	—
6	Brazil	C	93.1%	64.0%	43.1%	24.8%	14.4%	7.8%	—
7	Argentina	J	96.2%	59.8%	39.5%	23.2%	12.3%	5.9%	—
8	Portugal	K	94.3%	61.0%	39.8%	23.2%	11.7%	5.5%	—
9	Spain	H	94.9%	61.7%	36.2%	19.8%	9.8%	4.8%	—
10	Switzerland	B	92.2%	59.9%	30.5%	15.4%	6.9%	2.9%	—
11	Morocco	C	82.3%	47.4%	26.5%	12.7%	6.2%	2.6%	—
12	Uruguay	H	85.7%	44.1%	22.4%	10.1%	3.9%	1.6%	—
13	Netherlands	F	82.6%	40.1%	23.0%	9.2%	3.9%	1.5%	—
14	Japan	F	79.0%	37.1%	20.0%	8.6%	3.4%	1.1%	—
15	Ecuador	E	73.0%	36.8%	14.9%	5.7%	2.2%	0.9%	—
16	Iran	G	82.0%	42.6%	17.8%	6.9%	2.5%	0.8%	—
17	Sweden	F	67.9%	28.5%	13.2%	4.9%	1.9%	0.8%	—
18	Czechia	A	79.5%	37.3%	13.9%	5.2%	2.0%	0.7%	—
19	Colombia	K	73.9%	27.6%	12.7%	5.0%	1.9%	0.6%	—
20	Norway	I	69.6%	33.6%	12.9%	4.9%	1.8%	0.6%	—
21	Curaçao	E	66.6%	32.5%	11.7%	4.3%	1.7%	0.6%	—
22	Mexico	A	75.9%	33.9%	12.7%	4.1%	1.4%	0.5%	—
23	South Korea	A	77.6%	34.8%	12.6%	4.2%	1.4%	0.4%	—
24	Scotland	C	61.0%	25.6%	11.2%	3.9%	1.2%	0.4%	—
25	Türkiye	D	77.5%	36.3%	11.3%	3.9%	1.2%	0.4%	—
26	Bosnia & Herzegovina	B	72.3%	34.5%	11.8%	3.8%	1.1%	0.3%	—
27	Austria	J	73.3%	26.8%	10.1%	3.3%	1.1%	0.2%	—
28	Australia	D	73.5%	33.5%	10.8%	3.6%	1.2%	0.2%	—
29	Canada	B	65.0%	28.2%	8.7%	2.6%	0.7%	0.2%	—
30	Saudi Arabia	H	62.7%	22.3%	8.7%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%	—
31	Iraq	I	47.4%	18.2%	5.5%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%	—
32	Senegal	I	50.9%	20.3%	6.3%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%	—
33	Paraguay	D	66.8%	26.5%	7.2%	2.1%	0.8%	0.1%	—
34	Uzbekistan	K	55.1%	16.0%	6.1%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	—
35	United States	D	56.7%	20.6%	5.4%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%	—
36	Jordan	J	51.5%	13.7%	3.9%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	—
37	Haiti	C	32.4%	9.6%	2.9%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	—
38	Tunisia	F	42.3%	13.2%	4.4%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%	—
39	Ghana	L	36.6%	11.9%	4.1%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	—
40	Panama	L	32.6%	9.6%	3.2%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%	—
41	New Zealand	G	41.1%	11.5%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%	—
42	Algeria	J	46.4%	11.1%	3.1%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	—
43	DR Congo	K	43.2%	10.2%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	—
44	South Africa	A	40.3%	10.9%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	—
45	Qatar	B	40.9%	13.2%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	—
46	Ivory Coast	E	28.9%	8.2%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	—
47	Cape Verde	H	24.5%	5.2%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	—
48	Egypt	G	30.0%	6.7%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in championship probability (percentage points) vs the previous forecast. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO tournament simulation.