World Cup 2026 — Champion Odds

Each team's road to the title, simulated by the SFMMO bracket model.

Updated after each matchday

Forecast vintage: Pre Matchday 1 Pre Matchday 2 Pre Matchday 3 Pre Round of 32 Pre Round of 16 Pre Quarter-finals Pre Semi-finals Pre Final Final result

Showing the forecast exactly as it stood before this matchday — the receipts. 🧾

Probabilities of reaching each knockout round and of winning the title, from a full tournament simulation (group stage incl. best third-placed seeding, then the knockout bracket). Columns sum across teams to the round's slot count — e.g. Champion sums to 100%, Final to 200%. Click a column header to sort.

Title Odds Tracker

How each nation's championship probability has evolved across forecast updates. Pick any set of teams to compare.

#	Team	Group	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion	Δ
1	France	I	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	52.7%	30.4%	▲ 10.1
2	England	L	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	57.2%	28.4%	▲ 7.8
3	Spain	H	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	47.3%	22.4%	▲ 12.7
4	Argentina	J	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	42.8%	18.8%	▲ 7.2
5	Mexico	A	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
6	Senegal	I	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
7	Iran	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
8	New Zealand	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
9	Cape Verde	H	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
10	Saudi Arabia	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
11	Uruguay	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
12	Iraq	I	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
13	Norway	I	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -3.0
14	Algeria	J	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
15	South Africa	A	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
16	Jordan	J	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
17	Austria	J	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
18	Colombia	K	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
19	DR Congo	K	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
20	Portugal	K	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
21	Uzbekistan	K	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
22	Ghana	L	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
23	Croatia	L	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
24	Belgium	G	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -21.0
25	Egypt	G	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
26	Tunisia	F	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
27	Scotland	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
28	South Korea	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
29	Czechia	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
30	Bosnia & Herzegovina	B	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
31	Canada	B	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
32	Qatar	B	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
33	Switzerland	B	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -7.3
34	Brazil	C	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
35	Haiti	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
36	Morocco	C	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -6.4
37	Australia	D	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
38	Sweden	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
39	Paraguay	D	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
40	Türkiye	D	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
41	United States	D	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
42	Curaçao	E	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
43	Germany	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
44	Ecuador	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
45	Ivory Coast	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
46	Japan	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
47	Netherlands	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
48	Panama	L	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in championship probability (percentage points) vs the previous forecast. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO tournament simulation.