World Cup 2026 — Champion Odds

Each team's road to the title, simulated by the SFMMO bracket model.

Updated after each matchday

Forecast vintage: Pre Matchday 1 Pre Matchday 2 Pre Matchday 3 Pre Round of 32 Pre Round of 16 Pre Quarter-finals Pre Semi-finals Pre Final Final result

Showing the forecast exactly as it stood before this matchday — the receipts. 🧾

Probabilities of reaching each knockout round and of winning the title, from a full tournament simulation (group stage incl. best third-placed seeding, then the knockout bracket). Columns sum across teams to the round's slot count — e.g. Champion sums to 100%, Final to 200%. Click a column header to sort.

Title Odds Tracker

How each nation's championship probability has evolved across forecast updates. Pick any set of teams to compare.

#	Team	Group	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion	Δ
1	Belgium	G	95.2%	76.7%	56.5%	37.4%	22.6%	13.5%	▼ -1.9
2	France	I	100.0%	82.7%	48.2%	33.3%	20.9%	13.0%	▼ -0.5
3	Germany	E	100.0%	83.8%	46.2%	32.1%	19.8%	12.0%	▼ -0.1
4	England	L	100.0%	78.5%	53.8%	34.0%	19.3%	10.2%	▼ -1.5
5	Croatia	L	94.8%	66.7%	45.6%	29.1%	16.1%	8.5%	▲ 0.5
6	Brazil	C	100.0%	65.8%	45.6%	26.5%	15.6%	7.9%	▲ 1.1
7	Argentina	J	100.0%	75.1%	45.3%	27.1%	14.6%	7.0%	▲ 0.5
8	Spain	H	100.0%	69.3%	38.7%	24.2%	12.0%	5.8%	▲ 1.6
9	Portugal	K	100.0%	65.6%	43.0%	23.5%	12.1%	5.6%	▲ 1.0
10	Morocco	C	100.0%	54.9%	33.7%	14.0%	6.8%	3.3%	▲ 0.6
11	Switzerland	B	100.0%	67.8%	33.5%	14.0%	6.2%	2.5%	▲ 0.4
12	Japan	F	100.0%	45.5%	24.5%	10.5%	4.8%	1.9%	▲ 0.4
13	Netherlands	F	100.0%	44.4%	26.3%	9.3%	3.9%	1.6%	▼ -0.1
14	Norway	I	100.0%	61.9%	22.1%	8.6%	3.2%	1.1%	▲ 0.2
15	Colombia	K	100.0%	42.8%	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	0.9%	▲ 0.1
16	Uruguay	H	50.8%	27.5%	12.5%	6.1%	1.8%	0.8%	▼ -0.7
17	Iran	G	86.7%	44.2%	19.8%	7.0%	2.1%	0.6%	▲ 0.2
18	Mexico	A	100.0%	47.6%	17.6%	6.3%	2.3%	0.6%	▼ -0.1
19	Sweden	F	91.0%	40.8%	16.4%	5.8%	2.2%	0.5%	▼ -0.3
20	South Korea	A	85.7%	38.7%	14.8%	3.9%	1.3%	0.4%	0.0
21	Scotland	C	73.2%	29.3%	9.6%	3.3%	1.1%	0.3%	▼ -0.3
22	Canada	B	100.0%	49.6%	15.5%	3.9%	1.1%	0.3%	▲ 0.1
23	Australia	D	85.9%	32.3%	9.8%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%	▼ -0.2
24	Curaçao	E	51.2%	22.4%	7.8%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%	▼ -0.1
25	United States	D	100.0%	47.2%	16.9%	4.3%	0.8%	0.2%	▲ 0.1
26	Ecuador	E	22.6%	10.2%	3.9%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%	▼ -0.1
27	Austria	J	91.0%	27.8%	9.0%	3.6%	0.9%	0.1%	▼ -0.3
28	Czechia	A	45.1%	18.9%	8.9%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%	▼ -0.2
29	Ghana	L	99.9%	27.3%	9.4%	2.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0
30	Bosnia & Herzegovina	B	58.2%	25.1%	8.3%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
31	Paraguay	D	62.0%	15.2%	4.1%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0
32	Saudi Arabia	H	48.1%	12.1%	4.6%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
33	Senegal	I	31.2%	10.8%	3.9%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
34	Türkiye	D	28.1%	4.8%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	▼ -0.2
35	DR Congo	K	43.2%	6.8%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0
36	Algeria	J	59.5%	15.2%	5.0%	1.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0
37	Ivory Coast	E	72.2%	18.6%	4.2%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0
38	Qatar	B	21.4%	6.7%	1.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0
39	Egypt	G	100.0%	18.3%	3.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0
40	Uzbekistan	K	5.3%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
41	Cape Verde	H	51.5%	7.5%	1.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0
42	South Africa	A	24.3%	6.5%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
43	New Zealand	G	4.7%	1.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
44	Iraq	I	5.8%	1.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
45	Jordan	J	7.5%	2.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
46	Haiti	C	2.6%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
47	Panama	L	1.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
48	Tunisia	F	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in championship probability (percentage points) vs the previous forecast. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO tournament simulation.