World Cup 2026 — Champion Odds

Each team's road to the title, simulated by the SFMMO bracket model.

Updated after each matchday

Forecast vintage: Pre Matchday 1 Pre Matchday 2 Pre Matchday 3 Pre Round of 32 Pre Round of 16 Pre Quarter-finals Pre Semi-finals Pre Final

Showing the forecast exactly as it stood before this matchday — the receipts. 🧾

Probabilities of reaching each knockout round and of winning the title, from a full tournament simulation (group stage incl. best third-placed seeding, then the knockout bracket). Columns sum across teams to the round's slot count — e.g. Champion sums to 100%, Final to 200%. Click a column header to sort.

Title Odds Tracker

How each nation's championship probability has evolved across forecast updates. Pick any set of teams to compare.

#	Team	Group	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion	Δ
1	Belgium	G	96.5%	78.3%	61.3%	40.5%	24.3%	15.4%	▼ -0.8
2	France	I	99.5%	80.9%	48.6%	33.4%	21.1%	13.5%	▲ 1.1
3	Germany	E	99.9%	81.1%	47.8%	33.4%	19.7%	12.0%	▲ 2.0
4	England	L	99.6%	76.2%	55.4%	34.7%	22.2%	11.7%	▲ 3.2
5	Croatia	L	88.1%	62.9%	43.0%	26.7%	14.7%	8.0%	▼ -1.9
6	Brazil	C	93.3%	62.6%	42.2%	23.6%	13.8%	6.8%	▼ -1.0
7	Argentina	J	99.7%	65.7%	44.6%	27.6%	14.4%	6.6%	▲ 0.7
8	Portugal	K	91.0%	56.3%	36.5%	20.2%	10.2%	4.6%	▼ -1.0
9	Spain	H	85.5%	54.0%	31.3%	17.9%	8.9%	4.2%	▼ -0.6
10	Morocco	C	87.2%	48.0%	29.0%	12.6%	5.7%	2.7%	▲ 0.1
11	Switzerland	B	84.9%	53.9%	27.8%	13.3%	5.9%	2.1%	▼ -0.8
12	Netherlands	F	87.1%	42.7%	24.2%	9.4%	4.4%	1.8%	▲ 0.2
13	Japan	F	84.2%	40.0%	20.6%	8.3%	3.5%	1.5%	▲ 0.3
14	Uruguay	H	80.8%	40.4%	19.3%	8.9%	3.6%	1.4%	▼ -0.1
15	Norway	I	95.2%	53.9%	19.6%	8.1%	2.9%	0.9%	▲ 0.3
16	Sweden	F	96.4%	39.3%	18.9%	6.3%	2.2%	0.9%	▲ 0.1
17	Colombia	K	90.6%	39.3%	19.6%	8.0%	2.5%	0.7%	▲ 0.1
18	Mexico	A	94.6%	43.1%	16.9%	5.8%	2.2%	0.7%	▲ 0.2
19	Scotland	C	74.3%	30.4%	13.1%	4.2%	1.5%	0.6%	▲ 0.2
20	Austria	J	91.4%	36.1%	13.9%	5.1%	1.6%	0.5%	▲ 0.2
21	Iran	G	72.0%	36.4%	15.3%	5.9%	1.8%	0.4%	▼ -0.4
22	South Korea	A	94.5%	45.1%	16.1%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%	0.0
23	Australia	D	96.3%	47.7%	15.4%	5.5%	1.5%	0.4%	▲ 0.2
24	Czechia	A	68.9%	28.4%	11.0%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%	▼ -0.3
25	Curaçao	E	31.1%	13.2%	5.0%	2.1%	0.8%	0.3%	▼ -0.3
26	Ecuador	E	50.8%	23.1%	9.1%	3.4%	1.3%	0.3%	▼ -0.6
27	Türkiye	D	60.9%	25.3%	8.0%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	▼ -0.1
28	Saudi Arabia	H	65.0%	21.6%	8.2%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0
29	Canada	B	62.8%	27.9%	8.6%	2.6%	0.5%	0.2%	▼ -0.1
30	Bosnia & Herzegovina	B	66.0%	31.2%	10.0%	3.0%	0.8%	0.1%	▼ -0.2
31	Senegal	I	45.2%	19.5%	6.2%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
32	Ghana	L	56.5%	18.6%	6.9%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0
33	United States	D	93.6%	35.8%	9.7%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0
34	Paraguay	D	27.9%	9.5%	2.8%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
35	Jordan	J	33.4%	9.8%	2.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0
36	Uzbekistan	K	29.9%	7.1%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
37	Iraq	I	19.8%	7.3%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	▼ -0.1
38	Ivory Coast	E	68.0%	19.5%	4.5%	1.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0
39	DR Congo	K	59.0%	13.9%	4.6%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0
40	New Zealand	G	47.8%	13.2%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0
41	Qatar	B	51.4%	17.8%	3.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0
42	Egypt	G	48.4%	10.7%	1.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0
43	Haiti	C	15.0%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
44	Tunisia	F	10.6%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
45	Algeria	J	36.0%	9.5%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0
46	Cape Verde	H	35.0%	6.5%	1.6%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
47	Panama	L	13.1%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
48	South Africa	A	21.5%	4.6%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in championship probability (percentage points) vs the previous forecast. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO tournament simulation.