World Cup 2026 — Champion Odds

Each team's road to the title, simulated by the SFMMO bracket model.

Updated after each matchday

Forecast vintage: Pre Matchday 1 Pre Matchday 2 Pre Matchday 3 Pre Round of 32 Pre Round of 16 Pre Quarter-finals Pre Semi-finals Pre Final Final result

Showing the forecast exactly as it stood before this matchday — the receipts. 🧾

Probabilities of reaching each knockout round and of winning the title, from a full tournament simulation (group stage incl. best third-placed seeding, then the knockout bracket). Columns sum across teams to the round's slot count — e.g. Champion sums to 100%, Final to 200%. Click a column header to sort.

Title Odds Tracker

How each nation's championship probability has evolved across forecast updates. Pick any set of teams to compare.

#	Team	Group	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion	Δ
1	Belgium	G	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	62.4%	34.7%	21.0%	▲ 0.7
2	England	L	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	72.8%	42.5%	20.6%	▲ 8.3
3	France	I	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	64.2%	34.0%	20.3%	▲ 1.1
4	Argentina	J	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	53.1%	27.3%	11.6%	▼ -0.5
5	Spain	H	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	37.6%	18.1%	9.7%	▲ 4.4
6	Switzerland	B	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	46.9%	20.0%	7.3%	▲ 3.0
7	Morocco	C	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	35.8%	13.2%	6.4%	▲ 2.3
8	Norway	I	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	27.3%	10.2%	3.0%	▲ 2.0
9	Iran	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
10	Egypt	G	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
11	South Africa	A	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
12	Tunisia	F	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
13	South Korea	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
14	Mexico	A	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.9
15	Senegal	I	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
16	New Zealand	G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
17	Cape Verde	H	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
18	Saudi Arabia	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
19	Uruguay	H	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
20	Iraq	I	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
21	Jordan	J	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
22	Czechia	A	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
23	Bosnia & Herzegovina	B	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
24	Canada	B	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.5
25	Qatar	B	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
26	Brazil	C	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -12.5
27	Haiti	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
28	Scotland	C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
29	Australia	D	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
30	Paraguay	D	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.4
31	Türkiye	D	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
32	United States	D	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -0.1
33	Curaçao	E	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
34	Germany	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
35	Ecuador	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
36	Ivory Coast	E	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
37	Japan	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
38	Netherlands	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
39	Sweden	F	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
40	Algeria	J	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
41	Panama	L	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
42	Austria	J	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
43	Colombia	K	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -1.7
44	DR Congo	K	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
45	Portugal	K	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ -5.2
46	Uzbekistan	K	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
47	Ghana	L	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
48	Croatia	L	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0

Bars scale to the current favourite. Δ = change in championship probability (percentage points) vs the previous forecast. Forecasts are posterior means from the SFMMO tournament simulation.