World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Sunday, June 14, 2026
Netherlands
1–1
most likely
Japan
Win: Netherlands
38.6%
90% CI: 26.7–51.2
Draw
24.7%
90% CI: 21.7–27.9
Win: Japan
36.6%
90% CI: 25.0–49.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Netherlands
xG 1.46
0
23.9%
15.2%–33.6%
1
33.6%
28.7%–36.6%
2
24.2%
20.0%–26.9%
3+
18.4%
9.8%–29.1%
Japan
xG 1.41
0
25.0%
15.9%–35.0%
1
34.0%
29.2%–36.7%
2
23.7%
19.3%–26.9%
3+
17.3%
9.0%–28.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Netherlands, draw, Win: Japan — shaded by likelihood.
|
Netherlands
|
Japan
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Goals 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Goals 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Goals 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.