World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Monday, June 15, 2026
Ivory Coast
0–1
most likely
Ecuador
Win: Ivory Coast
18.6%
90% CI: 10.1–28.5
Draw
25.4%
90% CI: 18.1–32.1
Win: Ecuador
56.1%
90% CI: 41.2–71.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Ivory Coast
xG 0.77
0
47.0%
35.8%–57.8%
1
35.0%
31.7%–36.8%
2
13.5%
8.7%–18.9%
3+
4.5%
1.8%–8.5%
Ecuador
xG 1.58
0
21.9%
11.1%–34.4%
1
32.1%
24.4%–36.6%
2
24.6%
19.6%–27.0%
3+
21.5%
9.3%–37.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Ivory Coast, draw, Win: Ecuador — shaded by likelihood.
|
Ivory Coast
|
Ecuador
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 10.3 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals 2 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Goals 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.