World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Monday, June 15, 2026
Sweden
1–0
most likely
Tunisia
Win: Sweden
48.2%
90% CI: 33.8–63.2
Draw
26.2%
90% CI: 20.9–31.2
Win: Tunisia
25.7%
90% CI: 15.2–38.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Sweden
xG 1.47
0
23.9%
13.4%–35.7%
1
33.2%
26.9%–36.7%
2
24.0%
18.9%–27.0%
3+
18.8%
8.6%–32.6%
Tunisia
xG 0.99
0
38.0%
26.3%–49.7%
1
36.1%
34.1%–36.8%
2
17.8%
12.2%–23.5%
3+
8.1%
3.4%–15.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Sweden, draw, Win: Tunisia — shaded by likelihood.
|
Sweden
|
Tunisia
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Goals 1 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.