World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Monday, June 15, 2026
Spain
2–0
most likely
Cape Verde
Win: Spain
79.9%
90% CI: 67.6–89.2
Draw
12.4%
90% CI: 6.1–19.3
Win: Cape Verde
7.2%
90% CI: 2.6–13.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Spain
xG 2.93
0
6.2%
1.9%–12.4%
1
16.3%
7.6%–25.9%
2
22.4%
15.0%–27.0%
3+
55.1%
34.7%–75.4%
Cape Verde
xG 0.74
0
48.1%
35.3%–60.3%
1
34.6%
30.5%–36.8%
2
13.0%
7.7%–19.1%
3+
4.3%
1.5%–8.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Spain, draw, Win: Cape Verde — shaded by likelihood.
|
Spain
|
Cape Verde
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.