World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Monday, June 15, 2026
Belgium
3–0
most likely
Egypt
Win: Belgium
88.2%
90% CI: 80.9–92.1
Draw
6.9%
90% CI: 2.6–12.7
Win: Egypt
2.9%
90% CI: 0.8–6.2
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Belgium
xG 3.70
0
3.1%
0.7%–6.9%
1
10.1%
3.5%–18.5%
2
17.1%
8.7%–24.7%
3+
69.7%
50.0%–87.0%
Egypt
xG 0.56
0
57.2%
46.4%–67.5%
1
31.6%
26.6%–35.6%
2
9.1%
5.2%–13.7%
3+
2.1%
0.8%–4.3%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Belgium, draw, Win: Egypt — shaded by likelihood.
|
Belgium
|
Egypt
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.