World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Saudi Arabia
0–1
most likely
Uruguay
Win: Saudi Arabia
22.8%
90% CI: 14.9–31.7
Draw
27.0%
90% CI: 22.1–31.7
Win: Uruguay
50.2%
90% CI: 38.4–62.2
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Saudi Arabia
xG 0.86
0
42.9%
32.8%–52.8%
1
35.9%
33.7%–36.8%
2
15.4%
10.8%–20.4%
3+
5.8%
2.7%–10.2%
Uruguay
xG 1.43
0
24.7%
15.5%–34.9%
1
33.8%
28.9%–36.7%
2
23.9%
19.3%–26.9%
3+
17.6%
9.0%–28.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Saudi Arabia, draw, Win: Uruguay — shaded by likelihood.
|
Saudi Arabia
|
Uruguay
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 10.6 | 14.5 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals 2 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Goals 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.