World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Iran
1–0
most likely
New Zealand
Win: Iran
53.9%
90% CI: 38.5–70.5
Draw
27.7%
90% CI: 19.3–35.6
Win: New Zealand
18.4%
90% CI: 9.8–28.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Iran
xG 1.41
0
25.9%
12.9%–40.4%
1
33.6%
26.4%–36.8%
2
23.1%
16.6%–27.0%
3+
17.4%
6.4%–33.7%
New Zealand
xG 0.68
0
51.4%
39.3%–62.8%
1
33.7%
29.2%–36.7%
2
11.5%
6.8%–17.1%
3+
3.4%
1.2%–6.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Iran, draw, Win: New Zealand — shaded by likelihood.
|
Iran
|
New Zealand
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 17.3 | 11.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.