World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Tuesday, June 16, 2026
France
2–0
most likely
Senegal
Win: France
70.1%
90% CI: 56.5–82.2
Draw
19.0%
90% CI: 12.0–26.1
Win: Senegal
10.9%
90% CI: 5.4–18.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
France
xG 2.09
0
13.3%
6.0%–22.4%
1
25.9%
16.9%–33.5%
2
26.1%
23.3%–27.1%
3+
34.8%
19.0%–53.4%
Senegal
xG 0.65
0
52.4%
41.3%–62.9%
1
33.5%
29.2%–36.5%
2
11.1%
6.8%–16.1%
3+
3.1%
1.2%–6.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: France, draw, Win: Senegal — shaded by likelihood.
|
France
|
Senegal
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.