World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Iraq
0–1
most likely
Norway
Win: Iraq
26.2%
90% CI: 16.2–37.8
Draw
26.8%
90% CI: 22.1–31.4
Win: Norway
46.9%
90% CI: 34.0–60.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Iraq
xG 0.98
0
38.4%
26.7%–50.0%
1
36.1%
34.1%–36.8%
2
17.6%
12.0%–23.3%
3+
7.9%
3.3%–14.8%
Norway
xG 1.41
0
25.2%
15.3%–36.2%
1
33.9%
28.7%–36.7%
2
23.6%
18.7%–26.9%
3+
17.3%
8.3%–29.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Iraq, draw, Win: Norway — shaded by likelihood.
|
Iraq
|
Norway
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Goals 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals 2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Goals 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.