World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Argentina
2–0
most likely
Algeria
Win: Argentina
74.4%
90% CI: 61.4–85.5
Draw
15.0%
90% CI: 8.7–21.5
Win: Algeria
10.3%
90% CI: 4.6–17.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Argentina
xG 2.68
0
7.7%
2.8%–14.6%
1
18.9%
10.1%–28.1%
2
24.0%
18.0%–27.0%
3+
49.3%
30.3%–69.0%
Algeria
xG 0.87
0
42.4%
31.6%–52.9%
1
35.9%
33.7%–36.8%
2
15.7%
10.7%–20.9%
3+
6.0%
2.7%–11.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Argentina, draw, Win: Algeria — shaded by likelihood.
|
Argentina
|
Algeria
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.