World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Friday, June 12, 2026
South Korea
1–1
most likely
Czechia
Win: South Korea
35.7%
90% CI: 24.4–48.6
Draw
27.9%
90% CI: 24.0–32.1
Win: Czechia
36.4%
90% CI: 24.8–48.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
South Korea
xG 1.17
0
31.9%
20.9%–43.2%
1
35.7%
32.7%–36.8%
2
20.7%
15.2%–25.6%
3+
11.7%
5.3%–20.8%
Czechia
xG 1.18
0
31.4%
20.8%–42.7%
1
35.7%
32.6%–36.8%
2
20.9%
15.5%–25.6%
3+
12.0%
5.5%–20.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: South Korea, draw, Win: Czechia — shaded by likelihood.
|
South Korea
|
Czechia
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Goals 2 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.