World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Austria
1–1
most likely
Jordan
Win: Austria
48.3%
90% CI: 33.2–63.5
Draw
22.5%
90% CI: 18.3–26.2
Win: Jordan
29.2%
90% CI: 17.3–43.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Austria
xG 1.84
0
16.8%
8.5%–26.7%
1
29.0%
20.9%–35.3%
2
26.0%
23.1%–27.1%
3+
28.2%
14.8%–44.8%
Jordan
xG 1.38
0
26.0%
15.6%–37.1%
1
34.2%
29.0%–36.8%
2
23.3%
18.3%–26.9%
3+
16.5%
7.9%–28.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Austria, draw, Win: Jordan — shaded by likelihood.
|
Austria
|
Jordan
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Goals 1 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Goals 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Goals 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.