World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Portugal
2–0
most likely
DR Congo
Win: Portugal
72.2%
90% CI: 56.8–85.0
Draw
15.8%
90% CI: 9.0–22.6
Win: DR Congo
11.7%
90% CI: 4.9–20.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Portugal
xG 2.61
0
8.4%
2.9%–16.0%
1
19.8%
10.2%–29.3%
2
24.2%
18.1%–27.0%
3+
47.6%
27.8%–68.9%
DR Congo
xG 0.92
0
40.5%
28.8%–51.9%
1
36.0%
33.9%–36.8%
2
16.6%
11.1%–22.3%
3+
6.9%
2.9%–13.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Portugal, draw, Win: DR Congo — shaded by likelihood.
|
Portugal
|
DR Congo
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.