World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Win: England
36.6%
90% CI: 25.2–49.1
Draw
25.4%
90% CI: 22.1–28.9
Win: Croatia
37.9%
90% CI: 25.8–51.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
England
xG 1.35
0
26.4%
17.5%–36.1%
1
34.5%
30.5%–36.7%
2
23.2%
18.7%–26.6%
3+
15.8%
8.4%–25.5%
Croatia
xG 1.39
0
25.8%
15.7%–36.8%
1
34.2%
29.1%–36.7%
2
23.4%
18.4%–26.9%
3+
16.7%
8.0%–28.3%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: England, draw, Win: Croatia — shaded by likelihood.
|
England
|
Croatia
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Goals 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Goals 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.