World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
England
1–1
most likely
Croatia
Win: England
35.2%
90% CI: 24.7–46.6
Draw
27.5%
90% CI: 23.9–31.3
Win: Croatia
37.3%
90% CI: 26.1–49.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
England
xG 1.18
0
31.3%
21.8%–41.1%
1
35.8%
33.2%–36.8%
2
21.0%
16.2%–25.3%
3+
11.9%
6.1%–19.6%
Croatia
xG 1.23
0
30.0%
19.5%–41.3%
1
35.4%
31.9%–36.8%
2
21.6%
16.2%–26.1%
3+
13.0%
6.0%–22.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: England, draw, Win: Croatia — shaded by likelihood.
|
England
|
Croatia
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Goals 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Goals 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.