World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Thursday, June 18, 2026
Ghana
1–1
most likely
Panama
Win: Ghana
39.0%
90% CI: 27.2–51.6
Draw
27.8%
90% CI: 23.9–32.0
Win: Panama
33.2%
90% CI: 22.1–45.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Ghana
xG 1.24
0
29.8%
19.3%–40.8%
1
35.4%
31.7%–36.8%
2
21.7%
16.4%–26.1%
3+
13.2%
6.2%–22.9%
Panama
xG 1.12
0
33.5%
22.1%–45.4%
1
35.9%
33.3%–36.8%
2
20.0%
14.2%–25.2%
3+
10.7%
4.6%–19.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Ghana, draw, Win: Panama — shaded by likelihood.
|
Ghana
|
Panama
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Goals 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals 2 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.