World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Thursday, June 18, 2026
Uzbekistan
1–1
most likely
Colombia
Win: Uzbekistan
28.1%
90% CI: 18.2–39.2
Draw
26.1%
90% CI: 21.9–30.4
Win: Colombia
45.7%
90% CI: 33.3–58.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Uzbekistan
xG 1.08
0
34.7%
24.5%–45.1%
1
36.2%
34.3%–36.8%
2
19.4%
14.3%–24.2%
3+
9.8%
4.7%–16.8%
Colombia
xG 1.46
0
24.1%
14.5%–35.1%
1
33.5%
28.0%–36.7%
2
24.0%
19.2%–27.0%
3+
18.4%
8.9%–30.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Uzbekistan, draw, Win: Colombia — shaded by likelihood.
|
Uzbekistan
|
Colombia
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Goals 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Goals 2 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Goals 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.