World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Friday, June 12, 2026
Canada
1–1
most likely
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Win: Canada
35.2%
90% CI: 22.0–50.1
Draw
24.5%
90% CI: 20.9–28.3
Win: Bosnia & Herzegovina
40.3%
90% CI: 26.1–55.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Canada
xG 1.39
0
25.9%
15.3%–37.6%
1
34.1%
28.7%–36.8%
2
23.3%
18.0%–26.9%
3+
16.7%
7.6%–29.0%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
xG 1.50
0
23.2%
13.3%–34.1%
1
33.0%
26.8%–36.7%
2
24.3%
19.7%–27.0%
3+
19.5%
9.5%–32.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Canada, draw, Win: Bosnia & Herzegovina — shaded by likelihood.
|
Canada
|
Bosnia & Herzegovina
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Goals 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Goals 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Goals 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.