World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Saturday, June 13, 2026
United States
0–1
most likely
Paraguay
Win: United States
31.7%
90% CI: 21.2–43.4
Draw
29.2%
90% CI: 25.0–33.7
Win: Paraguay
39.0%
90% CI: 27.3–51.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
United States
xG 1.01
0
37.1%
26.4%–48.3%
1
36.2%
34.5%–36.8%
2
18.2%
12.8%–23.4%
3+
8.5%
3.8%–15.1%
Paraguay
xG 1.16
0
32.2%
21.1%–44.1%
1
35.7%
32.8%–36.8%
2
20.5%
14.8%–25.6%
3+
11.5%
5.0%–20.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: United States, draw, Win: Paraguay — shaded by likelihood.
|
United States
|
Paraguay
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Goals 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Goals 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.