World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Saturday, June 13, 2026
Qatar
0–2
most likely
Switzerland
Win: Qatar
12.9%
90% CI: 6.6–20.7
Draw
18.6%
90% CI: 12.6–24.2
Win: Switzerland
68.5%
90% CI: 55.6–80.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Qatar
xG 0.82
0
44.7%
33.3%–55.7%
1
35.5%
32.6%–36.8%
2
14.6%
9.5%–20.1%
3+
5.3%
2.2%–9.9%
Switzerland
xG 2.21
0
11.7%
5.6%–19.1%
1
24.3%
16.2%–31.6%
2
26.1%
23.3%–27.1%
3+
37.9%
23.2%–54.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Qatar, draw, Win: Switzerland — shaded by likelihood.
|
Qatar
|
Switzerland
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.2 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals 1 | 4.1 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals 2 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.