World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Sunday, June 14, 2026
Brazil
1–0
most likely
Morocco
Win: Brazil
45.1%
90% CI: 32.4–58.5
Draw
28.7%
90% CI: 23.6–33.6
Win: Morocco
26.2%
90% CI: 16.8–36.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Brazil
xG 1.28
0
28.8%
17.9%–40.5%
1
35.0%
30.8%–36.8%
2
22.1%
16.5%–26.5%
3+
14.1%
6.3%–24.9%
Morocco
xG 0.89
0
41.6%
30.5%–52.5%
1
36.0%
33.8%–36.8%
2
16.1%
10.9%–21.5%
3+
6.4%
2.8%–11.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Brazil, draw, Win: Morocco — shaded by likelihood.
|
Brazil
|
Morocco
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.