World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Sunday, June 14, 2026
Haiti
0–1
most likely
Scotland
Win: Haiti
25.1%
90% CI: 14.3–37.5
Draw
25.5%
90% CI: 19.7–30.8
Win: Scotland
49.4%
90% CI: 34.2–65.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Haiti
xG 1.00
0
37.5%
25.6%–49.7%
1
36.0%
34.0%–36.8%
2
18.0%
12.1%–23.8%
3+
8.4%
3.4%–15.8%
Scotland
xG 1.54
0
22.6%
11.9%–35.1%
1
32.5%
25.3%–36.7%
2
24.4%
19.2%–27.0%
3+
20.5%
8.9%–35.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Haiti, draw, Win: Scotland — shaded by likelihood.
|
Haiti
|
Scotland
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals 2 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Goals 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.