World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Sunday, June 14, 2026
Australia
1–1
most likely
Türkiye
Win: Australia
37.8%
90% CI: 24.9–51.7
Draw
23.2%
90% CI: 20.3–26.3
Win: Türkiye
38.9%
90% CI: 26.2–53.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Australia
xG 1.58
0
21.4%
12.5%–31.4%
1
32.2%
25.9%–36.4%
2
25.0%
21.1%–27.0%
3+
21.4%
11.1%–34.6%
Türkiye
xG 1.61
0
20.8%
12.3%–30.3%
1
31.9%
25.7%–36.2%
2
25.2%
21.6%–27.0%
3+
22.0%
11.9%–35.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Australia, draw, Win: Türkiye — shaded by likelihood.
|
Australia
|
Türkiye
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals 1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Goals 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.