World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1 · Sunday, June 14, 2026
Germany
2–0
most likely
Curaçao
Win: Germany
65.0%
90% CI: 50.3–78.5
Draw
19.7%
90% CI: 13.3–25.6
Win: Curaçao
15.3%
90% CI: 7.6–25.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Germany
xG 2.14
0
12.7%
5.8%–21.6%
1
25.3%
16.4%–33.1%
2
26.1%
23.2%–27.1%
3+
35.9%
19.9%–54.4%
Curaçao
xG 0.90
0
41.3%
28.9%–53.8%
1
35.8%
33.3%–36.8%
2
16.2%
10.3%–22.3%
3+
6.6%
2.5%–13.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Germany, draw, Win: Curaçao — shaded by likelihood.
|
Germany
|
Curaçao
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.