World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Saturday, July 4, 2026
Win: Canada
29.6%
90% CI: 18.5–41.8
Draw
28.7%
90% CI: 24.0–33.5
Win: Morocco
41.7%
90% CI: 28.9–55.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Canada
xG 0.98
0
38.3%
26.3%–50.8%
1
36.0%
33.9%–36.8%
2
17.7%
11.7%–23.4%
3+
8.0%
3.2%–15.1%
Morocco
xG 1.23
0
30.2%
18.8%–42.4%
1
35.3%
31.4%–36.8%
2
21.5%
15.6%–26.3%
3+
13.0%
5.6%–23.5%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Canada, draw, Win: Morocco — shaded by likelihood.
|
Canada
|
Morocco
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 11.6 | 13.5 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Goals 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Goals 2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.