World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Saturday, July 4, 2026
Win: Canada
29.5%
90% CI: 18.4–41.7
Draw
28.5%
90% CI: 23.8–33.4
Win: Morocco
41.9%
90% CI: 29.1–56.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Canada
xG 0.99
0
38.0%
26.1%–50.5%
1
36.0%
33.9%–36.8%
2
17.8%
11.8%–23.6%
3+
8.2%
3.2%–15.3%
Morocco
xG 1.24
0
29.8%
18.4%–41.9%
1
35.2%
31.2%–36.8%
2
21.6%
15.8%–26.3%
3+
13.4%
5.8%–24.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Canada, draw, Win: Morocco — shaded by likelihood.
|
Canada
|
Morocco
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Goals 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Goals 2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Goals 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.