World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Tuesday, July 7, 2026
1–1
most likely
Win: Switzerland
45.0%
90% CI: 32.5–58.2
Draw
25.3%
90% CI: 21.7–29.1
Win: Colombia
29.6%
90% CI: 19.2–41.6

Marginal Distributions: Goals

The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.

Switzerland xG 1.51
0
22.8% 14.1%–32.5%
1
33.0% 27.6%–36.5%
2
24.6% 20.5%–27.0%
3+
19.6% 10.4%–31.3%
Colombia xG 1.17
0
31.7% 21.3%–42.8%
1
35.7% 32.9%–36.8%
2
20.8% 15.4%–25.5%
3+
11.7% 5.5%–20.3%

Scoreline Probabilities

Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Switzerland, draw, Win: Colombia — shaded by likelihood.

Switzerland Colombia
Goals 0Goals 1Goals 2Goals 3Goals 4Goals 5
Goals 0 7.2 8.1 4.7 1.9 0.6 0.1
Goals 1 10.5 11.8 6.9 2.7 0.9 0.2
Goals 2 7.8 8.8 5.1 2.0 0.6 0.2
Goals 3 4.0 4.5 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
Goals 4 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Goals 5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0

Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.