World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Win: Switzerland
45.0%
90% CI: 32.5–58.2
Draw
25.3%
90% CI: 21.7–29.1
Win: Colombia
29.6%
90% CI: 19.2–41.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Switzerland
xG 1.51
0
22.8%
14.1%–32.5%
1
33.0%
27.6%–36.5%
2
24.6%
20.5%–27.0%
3+
19.6%
10.4%–31.3%
Colombia
xG 1.17
0
31.7%
21.3%–42.8%
1
35.7%
32.9%–36.8%
2
20.8%
15.4%–25.5%
3+
11.7%
5.5%–20.3%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Switzerland, draw, Win: Colombia — shaded by likelihood.
|
Switzerland
|
Colombia
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Goals 1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Goals 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.