World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Win: Switzerland
44.7%
90% CI: 32.3–57.8
Draw
25.5%
90% CI: 21.9–29.3
Win: Colombia
29.7%
90% CI: 19.3–41.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Switzerland
xG 1.49
0
23.2%
14.5%–33.0%
1
33.2%
28.0%–36.6%
2
24.4%
20.3%–27.0%
3+
19.1%
10.1%–30.5%
Colombia
xG 1.16
0
32.0%
21.6%–43.1%
1
35.8%
33.1%–36.8%
2
20.6%
15.3%–25.4%
3+
11.5%
5.4%–19.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Switzerland, draw, Win: Colombia — shaded by likelihood.
|
Switzerland
|
Colombia
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Goals 1 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.