World Cup 2026

The Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) — a Bayesian regression model for match outcome forecasts.

2 fixtures

Win / Draw / Loss figures are posterior means from the Bayesian model, each shown with its 90% credible interval. Because they are three separate estimates, they may not sum to exactly 100%.

Matchday 1 Matchday 2 Matchday 3 Round of 32 Round of 16 Quarter-finals Semi-finals Third-place play-off Final

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Third-place play-off

Sat, Jul 18 Most likely: 1–0

Final

Sun, Jul 19 Most likely: 1–0