World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Saturday, July 4, 2026
Win: Paraguay
12.6%
90% CI: 7.0–19.6
Draw
22.3%
90% CI: 16.0–28.5
Win: France
65.1%
90% CI: 52.8–76.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Paraguay
xG 0.62
0
54.2%
42.7%–65.0%
1
32.8%
28.0%–36.3%
2
10.3%
6.0%–15.5%
3+
2.7%
1.0%–5.5%
France
xG 1.79
0
17.4%
9.9%–26.3%
1
29.7%
22.8%–35.1%
2
26.0%
23.4%–27.1%
3+
26.8%
15.1%–40.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Paraguay, draw, Win: France — shaded by likelihood.
|
Paraguay
|
France
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 9.5 | 16.1 | 14.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals 1 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals 2 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Goals 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.