World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Saturday, July 4, 2026
Win: Paraguay
12.5%
90% CI: 7.0–19.5
Draw
22.1%
90% CI: 15.8–28.3
Win: France
65.4%
90% CI: 53.1–76.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Paraguay
xG 0.62
0
54.1%
42.5%–64.9%
1
32.8%
28.0%–36.4%
2
10.4%
6.1%–15.5%
3+
2.7%
1.0%–5.6%
France
xG 1.81
0
17.2%
9.7%–26.1%
1
29.5%
22.6%–35.0%
2
26.1%
23.5%–27.1%
3+
27.2%
15.3%–41.3%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Paraguay, draw, Win: France — shaded by likelihood.
|
Paraguay
|
France
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 9.3 | 16.0 | 14.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals 1 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals 2 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Goals 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.