World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Win: Argentina
72.8%
90% CI: 58.9–84.8
Draw
16.5%
90% CI: 9.8–23.5
Win: Egypt
10.4%
90% CI: 4.7–18.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Argentina
xG 2.42
0
9.9%
3.9%–18.1%
1
21.9%
12.6%–31.0%
2
25.2%
20.5%–27.1%
3+
43.0%
24.5%–63.1%
Egypt
xG 0.76
0
47.1%
35.7%–58.1%
1
35.0%
31.6%–36.8%
2
13.4%
8.6%–18.9%
3+
4.5%
1.8%–8.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Argentina, draw, Win: Egypt — shaded by likelihood.
|
Argentina
|
Egypt
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.