World Cup 2026 · Matchday 6 · Thursday, July 9, 2026
Win: France
47.5%
90% CI: 34.8–60.7
Draw
28.9%
90% CI: 23.4–34.4
Win: Morocco
23.6%
90% CI: 14.8–33.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
France
xG 1.29
0
28.5%
17.8%–40.3%
1
34.9%
30.7%–36.8%
2
22.2%
16.7%–26.5%
3+
14.4%
6.4%–25.0%
Morocco
xG 0.81
0
45.3%
33.4%–56.8%
1
35.3%
32.1%–36.8%
2
14.3%
9.1%–20.1%
3+
5.1%
2.0%–9.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: France, draw, Win: Morocco — shaded by likelihood.
|
France
|
Morocco
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 15.8 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.