World Cup 2026 · Matchday 6 · Saturday, July 11, 2026
Win: Norway
17.9%
90% CI: 10.0–27.5
Draw
22.9%
90% CI: 16.8–28.7
Win: England
59.2%
90% CI: 45.6–72.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Norway
xG 0.86
0
43.2%
30.2%–55.6%
1
35.6%
32.6%–36.8%
2
15.3%
9.6%–21.6%
3+
5.9%
2.2%–12.0%
England
xG 1.80
0
17.5%
8.9%–27.5%
1
29.6%
21.6%–35.5%
2
25.9%
22.8%–27.1%
3+
27.1%
14.1%–43.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Norway, draw, Win: England — shaded by likelihood.
|
Norway
|
England
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.6 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals 2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Goals 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.