World Cup 2026 · Matchday 6 · Sunday, July 12, 2026
Win: Argentina
38.2%
90% CI: 27.2–49.7
Draw
29.2%
90% CI: 25.1–33.8
Win: Switzerland
32.6%
90% CI: 22.8–43.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Argentina
xG 1.15
0
32.5%
21.8%–43.9%
1
35.8%
33.2%–36.8%
2
20.4%
14.9%–25.3%
3+
11.2%
5.1%–19.7%
Switzerland
xG 1.03
0
36.2%
25.9%–47.1%
1
36.2%
34.6%–36.8%
2
18.7%
13.4%–23.7%
3+
8.9%
4.1%–15.5%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Argentina, draw, Win: Switzerland — shaded by likelihood.
|
Argentina
|
Switzerland
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Goals 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.